The top two members of a House Armed Services Committee (HASC) subcommittee this week said the Navy’s strike fighter shortfall is back to running through 2031, after previous years the service claimed the shortfall would end in 2030 and then 2025.

“Two years ago, the Navy’s strike-fighter shortfall would have lasted until 2030. However, last year the Navy told us that their strike fighter shortfall would be resolved to zero in 2025, primarily to have solid justification for terminating the new F-18 Super Hornet [production] line,” Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), chairman of the HASC tactical air and land forces subcommittee, said during his opening statement during a hearing April 27.

Last July, committee members questioned Navy officials on how it could resolve the strike fighter

shortfall five years sooner than it said one year previously (Defense Daily, July 19, 2021).

Norcross said the committee was “skeptical of last year’s analysis” since the assumptions were connected to “overly optimistic” F-35C procurement rates, “lackluster” F/A-18E/F Super Hornet service-life modification (SLM) performance and a non-rapid development of the Navy’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.

During the 2021 hearing, Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, Director of the Air Warfare Division (OPNAV/N98), said the Navy made changes to the math including the number of F-35C squadrons per carrier air wing be reduced from two to one while increasing planes per squadron from 10 to 14 and replacing F/A-18E/F reserve fighters as “red team” opposition forces with F-16s from the Air Force and F-5s from Switzerland.

Lt. Scott "Gameday" Gallagher lands an F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to "Blue Blasters" of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 34, for the 1,000th trap on USS Gerald R. Ford's (CVN 78) flight deck during flight operations on March 19, 2020 in the Atlantic Ocean. (Photo: U.S. Navy)
Lt. Scott “Gameday” Gallagher lands an F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to “Blue Blasters” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 34, for the 1,000th trap on USS Gerald R. Ford’s (CVN 78) flight deck during flight operations on March 19, 2020 in the Atlantic Ocean. (Photo: U.S. Navy)

Norcross said the committee hedged its analysis of that data by authorizing 12 more new F/A-18E/Fs in the FY ‘22 budget bill as “risk mitigation,” comparing the situation to 2012, when the Navy tried to convince Congress the F-35 was on track to meet force structure needs.

“And one year later, our skepticism proved warranted, and the Navy now informs us their strike-fighter shortfall will not be resolved until six years later in 2031 because of further unplanned reductions in F-35 purchases and reduced aircraft inductions into the” F/A-18E/F SLM program, Norcross added.

During her opening statement, ranking member Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.) likewise mentioned disappointment that “the Navy will continue to have a strike fighter shortfall through fiscal year 2031.”

She argued that with China on a path to match and surpass U.S. and allied forces capabilities and capacities, the U.S. military cannot sacrifice operational readiness and accept “exceptional” near-term risk for future longer-term modernization.

“The large number of proposed near-term aircraft divestments coupled with decreased procurement numbers in both the Air Force and Navy budget proposals and FYDP raise concerns that the Services are being forced to use their tactical aircraft fleets as bill payers for other modernization priorities,” Hartzler added.

Loiselle admitted the shortfall numbers had changed in the past year.

“We were at zero in ‘25 last year, this year we’re at 13 [in 2025]. We redo those numbers every month and the calculation of those numbers.”

He explained one way the Navy calculates numbers is by being conservative on Super Hornet life extension. He noted Boeing [BA] says it takes 12 months to complete a SLM phase for an F/A-18E/F to add thousands of flight hours and years of service life back into the aircraft, but the Navy allots 15 months to add “a conservative factor to that.”

In the SLM work, Boeing takes Block II Super Hornets nearing the end of their 6,000 service hour lives and upgrades them to the new Block III configuration, particularly pushing up to a 10,000 flight hour lifespan.

Boeing previously said it initially took 18 months to undergo the first set of SLM work on the Super Hornets, but it expected that to improve to 12 months as the system and work line progresses. In 2019, Boeing said it planned to modify up to 40 Super Hornets in the SLM at the program peak (Defense Daily, May 7, 2019).

When Hartzler asked what the Navy strike fighter inventory would like in 2027-2028 during a hypothetical conflict with China, Loiselle, could not provide a specific number.

She also reiterated that last year the officials told the committee the Navy can only salvage the strike fighter shortfall by repurposing Super Hornets assigned in reserve as adversary air aggressor squadrons. These were the aircraft replaced by the F-16s and F-5s for training purposes, but were available for use in contingencies. Hartzler was concerned those aircraft are no longer available for deployment in a warfighting capability.

Loiselle said the Navy would replace that option with using off-cycle aircraft as needed.

“Our predominant response, should reserved be required, is to take one squadron or an aircraft from an off-cycle air wing that is outside of their sustainment window, and utilize those aircraft as necessary to support front line air wings. They all go through their maintenance cycle,” Loiselle responded.