The Defense Department is set to complete its new Nuclear Posture Review this spring, and deliberations could address the weapons and nuclear yields necessary for the United States nuclear deterrent going forward, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein said Tuesday.
“I do believe we’re going to have discussions about munitions. I do believe we’re going to have discussions about yields. I do believe we’re going to have discussions about numbers of munitions required,” he said during a Defense Writers Group breakfast meeting with reporters.
Goldfein said he was “absolutely” prepared to consider the recommendations in a recent Defense Science Board report that calls on the new Trump administration to update the nuclear enterprise so that it could, as necessary, create “a rapid, tailored nuclear option for limited use.” Such an effort would encompass consideration of “lower yield options,” according to the recommendations from the panel of experts to the Pentagon, first reported last week by Roll Call.
The Defense Department has already undertaken a nuclear deterrent modernization program that is expected to cost $1 trillion over 30 years. To date, that has involved developing replacements for today’s ICBMs, strategic bombers, and ballistic missile submarines. The program appears to have broad bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, with the most contentious question being whether to build a new nuclear cruise missile.
On Jan. 27, President Donald Trump signed an order calling for a new National Defense Strategy, including an updated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) “to ensure that the United States nuclear deterrent is modern, robust, flexible, resilient, ready, and appropriately tailored to deter 21st-century threats and reassure our allies.”
The NPR would formalize the nation’s nuclear deterrent policy for up to a decade. The new document is likely to diverge from the Obama administration’s version, which emphasized curbing the number and role of nuclear weapons in the national security strategy.
“I fully anticipate that we will have a Nuclear Posture Review this spring,” Goldfein said. “I’m actually eager to have that dialogue, because it’s time for us, with any new administration, to have a fresh look at the nuclear enterprise that results in strategic guidance, policy guidance, to the department on where the administration wants us to go.”
The NPR process is likely to address all three legs of the nuclear triad, along with the needs of a 21st century deterrent in the face of increasing global capabilities in the space and cyber spheres, Goldfein said. But the three crucial elements of the deterrent – responsiveness, flexibility, and survivability – must not be forgotten, he added.
“As long as we keep those key attributes in place then I don’t have any issue with having a dialogue about numbers and yields,” Goldfein said. He did not dispute a reporter’s questions on whether the dialogue could address Defense Science Board recommendations on developing new ways to deliver lower-yield nuclear warheads, such as using drones to carry nuclear weapons or modifying ICBM warheads.
The details of the NPR for now are a matter of conjecture. Arms control experts last week told NS&D Monitor that the review would likely maintain focus on the strategic triad and modernization, along with considering U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. However, the policy is as yet “a huge unknown,” according to James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Separately, issue specialists said in a Defense News article this week that the new NPR would probably not direct major changes in nuclear policy, but could point toward the need for more funding for modernization activities at the Defense Department and the National Nuclear Security Administration, the semiautonomous Department of Energy branch tasked with keeping the arsenal safe, secure, and reliable.
The U.S. as of Sept. 1, 2016, had 1,367 warheads on deployed long-range ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers (in which the bomber counts as one warhead), according to the State Department’s latest update for the U.S.-Russian New START treaty. Roughly 200 lower-yield B61 tactical nuclear bombs are believed to be deployed at several bases in NATO states in Europe.
One-third of the U.S. nuclear arsenal already consists of low-yield nuclear weapons, Roll Call reported. The Defense Science Board supports increasing that count, along with introducing additional means of delivery, with the aim of preventing nuclear first strikes by Russia or other nuclear-armed states, according to the report.
This idea drew a quick, negative response from the arms control community.
“Trump orders Nuclear Posture Review. Defense chiefs already eyeing new nuclear weapons. Dangerous development could further fuel arms race,” tweeted Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
In his public statements to date, Trump has favored strengthening the U.S. nuclear deterrent – tweeting late last year that the U.S. needs an augmented nuclear capability until “the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” The next day, he reportedly told MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski that the U.S. would come out on top of any nuclear arms race.
This article was originally published in our sister publication Exchange Monitor.