The Air Force classifying most of the new Long Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) program could lead to hurdles on Capitol Hill as lawmakers won’t know whether there is work in their districts to protect, according to an analyst.
Teal Group Vice President of Analysis Richard Aboulafia said Tuesday though there are a couple of visionary leaders who think in terms of national capabilities and strategic priorities, “95 percent” of lawmakers care about jobs in their districts.
“You have to get them on board and as long as this thing is a secret, you’re not going to do that,” Aboulafia said at an event in Arlington, Va., hosted by the Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies.
Aboulafia also said LRSB’s secrecy would be a detriment in contrast to the F-35’s unclassified development, which he said would give the Joint Strike Fighter a strong political advantage in budgetary battles. The Air Force will only announce the winner of LRSB, Northrop Grumman [NOC], and will not provide subcontractors, including the engine manufacturer.
Aboulafia said the Air Force should lean toward sharing more information as opposed to providing details like the schematics of an electronic warfare suite, for example.
“More dissemination of information…what is the economic footprint per area,” Aboulafia said.
Air Force spokesman Maj. Robert Leese due to the critical nature of the technology and capability LRSB will afford the Pentagon, particularly in the anti-access/area-denial realm, certain information will continue to be protected by enhanced security measures.
American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Resident Fellow for Security Studies Mackenzie Eaglen agreed with Aboulafia, calling the F-35 the “elephant in the room.” Eaglen said the F-35, from today through the 2020s, will take up the majority of the Air Force’s procurement account. This, she said, doesn’t include budgetary competition from other major priorities like JSTARS recapitalization, the new T-X trainer and modernizing the ICBM fleet.
“The Air Force budget is not equipped to fully support this program,” Eaglen said. “The bomber is going to compete forever with the F-35. Let’s hope we don’t have sore losers.”
Leese said the service performs both a five-year planning process known as the program objective memorandum (POM) and a 30-year planning process that looks at a wide rang of modernization and readiness efforts. He said the Air Force has projected and budgeted the costs of LRSB into both its five-year and 30-year planning processes, updating each as the program matures.
Leese said the Air Force constantly balances efforts to ensure it can afford to complete programs once they are initiated.
“One of the reasons average procurement unit cost was set as a key performance parameter was to ensure the funding profile to develop and acquire LRSB fit into Air Force funding profiles,” Leese said in an email.
Eaglen saw another political hurdle to successful LRSB fielding in that she believes lawmakers don’t believe the threat requires new bomber aircraft. Eaglen said since Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t feature sophisticated foes with sophisticated air defense systems, politicians continue to “roll their eyes” when they hear Pentagon officials talk about a decline in United States airpower supremacy.
“This lack of a perceived threat question will be one that will continue to plague this program more than others,” Eaglen said.
Eaglen said she was encouraged by the “extraordinary” length of time the Air Force spent in LRSB development, which she said will help the service move faster in the next phase of the program. She also cited the Air Force’s employment of its Rapid Capabilities Office in early LRSB phases, though Eaglen also said using the office could be a detriment as it hasn’t handled a program of this magnitude, scope or breadth. The Rapid Capabilities Office expedites development and fielding of select DoD combat support and weapon systems by leveraging defense-wide technology efforts and existing operational capabilities.
The Air Force’s LRSB contract award was protested by Boeing [BA] and Lockheed Martin [LMT] on Nov. 6 (Defense Daily, Nov. 9). The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has until February 16 to make its decision.