By Emelie Rutherford

Amid speculation about Democratic lawmakers losing their reelection bids next week, defense companies are investing in such incumbents on military committees–even those who are tough on the industry at times.

House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) remains the top recipient of contributions from defense contractors as the mid-term election campaigns enter their final week before the Nov. 2 elections.

Skelton’s battle against Republican Vicky Hartzler for an 18th term in Congress is now so close The Cook Political Report last week dubbed the race a “toss up.” The Rothenberg Political Report‘s Oct. 22 House ratings labeled the battle for Missouri’s Fourth congressional district a “toss up/tilt Democrat.”

Though Republicans in general have advocated more forcefully for increased military spending despite the economic downturn, some Democrats like Skelton have pushed back on calls for cutting the Pentagon’s budget.

Skelton said at a Sept. 29 HASC hearing that “we must continue to grow the base defense budget for some time to come.” He has advocated for more spending to modernizing the Air Force and growing the Navy fleet. And his district includes Whiteman Air Force Base, the Army’s Ft. Leonard Wood, the Missouri National Guard’s headquarters, and defense contractors including Boeing [BA].

Defense companies’ employees have rewarded Skelton, donating $362,000 to him, far more than to any other lawmaker this election cycle, according to the latest analysis of Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign finance reports conducted by the Campaign for Responsive Politics (CRP). His top contributors, in order, are Lockheed Martin [LMT], General Dynamics [GD], Boeing, Northrop Grumman [NOC], and Finmeccanica SpA.

Still, Skelton and other recipients of defense contributions are not necessarily the industry’s darlings. Skelton has pushed back against defense contractors with over-budget and behind-schedule programs, as have fellow HASC members facing tough reelection battles, including Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), who are the second- and fourth-ranking Democrats on the panel.

The Rothenberg Political Report predicted Spratt’s seat leans to his Republican rival and Taylor’s seat is a “toss up/tilt Democrat.” Cook dubbed Spratt and Taylor’s races both toss ups.

Spratt, the No. 2 HASC Democrat and chairman of the House Budget Committee, garnered $112,000 from the defense industry, while Taylor, the chairman of the HASC’s Seapower and Expeditionary Forces subcommittee, received $54,700, according to the latest CRP data.

Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense in Washington, said defense contractors are hedging their bets with campaign contributions.

“Despite all the talk about sitting lawmakers losing at the ballot box, the reality is that the vast majority of them will get reelected,” Ellis told Defense Daily. “So to stay in good graces, military contractors give early and often.”

Ellis noted that if an armed services or appropriations committee members lose, their replacements likely won’t be seated on those coveted committees.

“So there is little downside for those in the defense industry to support incumbents,” he said.

Election analysts including Cook are predicting Republicans will win control of the House and its committees but the Senate and its panels will remain steered by Democrats. If those projections hold true, the industry is recognizing the likely military leaders in Congress.

HASC Ranking Member Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-Calif.), who is expected to win reelection, will become panel chairman if Republicans take over the House, received $286,000 from defense workers, making him their No. 3 recipient of campaign contributions. Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC) Chairman Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), who also is projected to win reelection, is the industry’s No. 4 recipient with $198,000 in contributions, according to the latest CRP data.

SAC member Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a fervent Boeing defender, is facing a rough challenge from Republican Dino Rossi. Rothenberg‘s latest ratings label her race as “toss up/tilt Democrat,” while an Oct. 17 Rasmussen Reports survey of Washington state voters shows Murray with 49 percent of the vote to Rossi’s 46 percent.

Murray is the No. 6 recipient of defense contributions, with $159,000, according to the latest CRP data.

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), a former Navy admiral running for the Senate seat Democrat Arlen Specter lost in the May primary election, is the No. 8 recipient of military contractors’ donations, with $146,000.

Sestak is in a race against Republican Pat Toomey that Cook said is a toss up and Rothenberg predicted is a toss up that leans Republican. An Oct. 21 Rasmussen poll shows Toomey earning 48 percent support of Pennsylvania voters to Sestak’s 44 percent.

Another Democrat facing a tricky reelection battle is Rep. Allen Boyd (Fla.), the No. 5 Democrat on the all-powerful House Appropriations Defense subcommittee. Rothenberg predicted Boyd’s battle against GOP challenger Steve Southerland leans to the Republican.

Defense-minded Democrats fighting for their political lives aren’t being shy about touting their defense contracting ties. Taylor, for example, has run a radio advertisement reminding Mississippi voters about his advocacy for buying Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles to protect troops in Iraq and Afghanistan from roadside bombs.

Boeing is the defense company whose employees donated the most to congressional campaigns this election cycle, according to the latest CRP data, which reflects FEC filings as of Oct. 3. And the Chicago-based company gave the most to Murray: $69,000.

The top five industry donors, according to the CRP analysis, are: Boeing ($2.1 million, 59 percent to Democrats); Lockheed Martin (2.1 million, 55 percent Democrat); Raytheon [RTN] ($1.7million, 55 percent Democrat); Northrop Grumman ($1.4 million, 53 percent Democrat); and General Dynamics ($1.1 million, 63 percent Democrat).