2003: Another Safe Year

Results best 1990s trend

Despite the Christmas Day fatal crash of a B727 on takeoff at Cotonou Airport, Benin, 2003 was one of the safest years ever for the commercial air transport industry. The number of fatal accidents involving passengers were down more than 45 percent compared to the 1990s average, and 35 percent below the 20 accidents "expected" by the long-term trend.

The preliminary 2003 results were compiled by UK-based aviation consultancy Airclaims. The firm’s annual look-back at the year just completed is considered by many in the aviation industry as the authoritative report on the state of safety.

According to Airclaims’ year-end Special Bulletin No. 334, "2003 has turned out to be one of the safest years ever for commercial air transport." The outcome is pleasantly surprising, "given the distractions and pressures with which the industry is having to cope," Airclaims said.

The bulletin featured a number of highlights and concerns:

Passenger fatalities. With 576 passengers killed, 2003 turned out to be the second safest year on record; 1999 remains the best year for this metric, with 496 passengers killed. "That year remains the safest since the start of commercial air transport," Airclaims said. (ASW note: these figures include Eastern-built aircraft. The table includes only the toll involving Western-built aircraft.)

Insurance implications. Losses of around $1 billion were incurred in 2003, a respite for beleaguered insurers after the disastrous terrorist attacks of 2001. The 2003 insurance losses are "about half" of the $2 billion average. Beware of short-term relief, Airclaims cautioned. "Two ‘good’ years [2002-2003], unfortunately, do not make a trend and, with the cost of repairs, average hull values and liability settlements ever increasing, the only way the cost of claims can go is up." Airclaims said that its estimate of insurance losses for 2003 is preliminary and, if the past is any indicator, tends to underestimate the final insurance toll. "Looking back … losses have increased for virtually every year when compared to the figures we published at the time," Airclaims cautioned. For example, the company now places insurance losses for the five-year period 1998-2002 at $14.4 billion – some $2.2 billion more than estimated at the time.

Western-built jets. These aircraft carry about 90 percent of the traffic worldwide, and the signs are encouraging. In 2003, the record of fatal accidents (5) and total losses (14) are below the 1990s averages (which are 22 for total losses and 7.6 fatal accidents).

The five fatal accidents in 2003 killed 444 passengers. The toll is similar to 2002, Airclaims said, "When the same number of fatal accidents resulted in 487 passenger deaths."

"Although not as good as in 2001, when 377 passengers died in four fatal accidents, it is still much better than the experience in the 1990s, which saw annual averages of 598 passenger deaths and eight fatal accidents.

Western-built turboprops. The 23 known total loss accidents is down considerably from the 1990s average of 33. "There were five fatal accidents to passengers on revenue passenger flights in 2003 resulting in the death of 37 passengers," Airclaims observed. As in the case of jets, this toll is better than the 1990s average of 11 fatal accidents and 156 passenger fatalities annually.

Eastern-built aircraft. Total losses for the jets (6) were below the 1990s average (7.9), and the 76 passengers killed in two fatal accidents in 2003 was less than half the 165 passengers killed on revenue passenger flights in 2002.

For turboprops, 11 aircraft were lost in 2002, compared to 17 the year before. The number of total loss accidents also was better than the 1990s average of 13 per year. The 19 passenger fatalities were significantly lower than the 2002 toll of 58 passengers killed, as well as below the 1990s average of 53 killed annually on Eastern-built turboprops.

For Western and Eastern-built aircraft, jets and turboprops combined, 2003 marked a continuation of a downward trend in the number of fatal accidents. For Western-built jets, a similar trend holds. Meanwhile, the cost of insurance losses for destroyed jetliners continues to mount. Not only for the deaths avoided, the mounting insurance outlays provide a strong incentive to further reduce the number and severity of accidents.