The costs to Russia if it invades Ukraine include export controls of high-technology such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic flight technologies and robotics, all key ingredients of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hopes to diversify his country’s economy away from an over reliance on oil and gas exports, a White House official said last Friday.
Some of the additional restricted exports would also include quantum, semiconductor and bio-technologies, Daleep Singh, deputy national security adviser for international economics, said during a White House press briefing to further outline the costs to Russia if its military invades Ukraine.
Singh, who appeared alongside Anne Neuberger, who is the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, briefed the media as tensions in and around Ukraine heightened. Early last week it appeared that Russia might be considering toning down its military buildup around Ukraine but following Russian cyber operations against the Ukrainian government and an apparent further buildup of military forces threatening the East European country, the U.S. and its allies poured on the warnings to Putin that a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty will end up being costly to Russia.
“As we and our partners move in lockstep to deny these critical technology inputs to Russia’s economy, Putin’s desire to diversify outside of oil and gas, which is two-thirds of his export revenue, half of his budget revenues, that will be denied,” Singh said. “He has spoken many times about his desire for an aerospace sector, a defense sector, an IT sector. Without these critical technology inputs there is no path to realizing those ambitions.”
As far as China stepping in and filling the high technology gap that Russia benefits from its trade elsewhere, Singh said that the West and “open societies” are the primary sources of design and production of “foundational” technologies and give the U.S. and its partners and allies an “asymmetric advantage.”
“So, there really is no ability for Russia to replace or compensate for the denial of these inputs from anywhere else, including China,” he said.