By Geoff Fein
A panel of defense analysts and authors acknowledged yesterday before the House Armed Services Committee Seapower Subcommittee that the Navy will have difficulty reaching a 300-ship fleet, and that the service should drop the costly DDG-1000, but continue on with the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS).
Additionally, the witnesses said reforms are needed in the way platforms are acquired and the Navy should not be relocating an aircraft carrier from Virginia to Florida.
Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss)., subcommittee chairman, said the hearing was scheduled to discuss alternative roles and missions for both the Navy and Marine Corps. He added that the witnesses were not handpicked to present any particular view on force structure requirements, but instead were brought together because of their expertise and strategic analysis.
The panelists included Ron O’Rourke, senior Navy analyst at the Congressional Research Service, Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, author Thomas Barnett and retired Navy Rear Adm. William Houley.
Houley, a former submariner, told committee members the Navy’s existing force structure could be argued to be inadequate or barely adequate. “The number of ships we have cannot logically be argued to be excessive.”
Additionally, he added that: “Ship lifetime can only be extended so far. We cannot solve our problems by painting over rocks.”
The Navy’s challenges are clear, he added.
“We have too few ships. Ships are being built and commissioned at a slower rate than existing ships are being retired,” Houley said.
He told committee members that they need to stand firm in protecting aircraft carriers.
“They are more than the backbone or heart of the Navy. Not only [are they the] first assets the president considers when faced with military challenges, but [carriers are] one of the few unquestioned military resources our nation will require in the future,” Houley said. “These ships are enormously expensive and take a long time to build, but they are the essence of force projection…the ultimate expeditionary force.”
Houley added the retirement rate of the nation’s submarine fleet is frightening, but praised lawmakers for allowing the Navy to move toward building two boats a year.
Like his counterparts on the panel, Houley thought LCS is a good idea. The issue of the ship’s cost shouldn’t be a worry, he added.
“LCS will move toward a reasonable cost much faster than the next idea that comes down the chute,” he said. “Once we get these ships running right, the Navy will [move forward] with the right combination of warfighting modules and these ships will become the workhorses that we can move around the world and address some of the Navy’s presence requirements that do not require battle groups.”
Houley said acquisition reform cannot be achieved by adding more rules and regulations. “That’s how we got to where we are.”
Barnett, who has written a number of books on the military, said he sees a future in which a small war force…more Army and Marines…experiences continued growth while the big war force, primarily the Air Force and Navy, experiences the opposite.
“As a result, I predict the Navy’s blue water force will shrink significantly over the next couple of decades while the green/brown water fleet will expand dramatically along with the personnel required,” he said.
For his part, Thompson noted that the current Navy plans for a fleet in excess of 300 ships is not affordable.
“We cannot get Navy ships above 300 anytime again unless we purchase smaller, cheaper warships,” he said.
Unfortunately, that approach will not afford the nation carriers and submarines, he added.
Thompson, however, told lawmakers that “LCS is not a failed program.”
“We haven’t had enough time. Calling it failed now is really a prescription for wasting a ton of money and starting over with nothing to show for it,” he said.
O’Rourke, who has appeared before the subcommittee on numerous occasions to discuss the Navy’s shipbuilding plan, noted that many of the ships in the service will be around 10 to 20 years from now. “Part of the future Navy is already with us today.”
Low shipbuilding rates have made it challenging to reach a 313-ship fleet, he said. O’Rourke pointed out that for the last 17 years, the Navy has been building ships at about 5.4 per year. That means the Navy will have to more than double its build rate to reach its planned goal.
“Twelve ships per year will be needed for a 300-ship fleet,” O’Rourke said.
Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va), subcommittee ranking member, questioned the need to port a nuclear carrier at Mayport, Fla. He pointed out the cost to do so could be upward of $500 million in recurring and one-time charges.
Thompson said he sees no reason for the move.
“I can’t imagine any set of circumstances where it would be cost effective to move an aircraft carrier to Mayport,” he said. “Unless Norfolk won’t be there in 10 years. Other than that, it makes no economic sense.”