Market demand for Suborbital Reusable Vehicles (SRV) appears strong enough to support multiple providers and daily flights, according to a report released last week by a Washington aerospace consulting firm.
The Tauri Group report, Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A Ten-Year Forecast of Market Demand, estimated market demand for commercially-developed reusable space vehicles that may carry humans or cargo. The report covered three scenarios: baseline scenario, where SRVs operate in a predicable political and economic environment similar to today’s; growth scenario, which reflects new dynamics emerging from successful commercial human space flight; and constrained scenario, where SRVs operate in an environment with reduced spending, possibly due to a worsened global economy.
The report found baseline demand, based on current trends and consumer interest, would exceed $600 million over 10 years in SRV flight revenue, supporting daily flight activity.
The growth scenario, reflecting increased marketing, demonstrated research successes, increased awareness and greater consumer uptake, could generate $1.6 billion in revenue over a decade with multiple flights per day.
But in the constrained scenario, where consumer and enterprise spending drop relative to today’s trends, $300 million could be generated over 10 years with multiple space flights per week.
The report said additional potential demand, such as price reductions, research discoveries, commercial applications, government applications and major sponsorships, could affect yearly revenue and was not estimated.
The report, based on primary research and other data sources, was jointly funded by the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) and Space Florida, Florida’s spaceport authority and aerospace development organization.
Companies developing SRVs, such as Virgin Galactic, Armadillo Aerospace and XCOR Aerospace, typically target high flight rates and low costs, according to the report. SRVs capable of carrying humans are in development and planned for operations in the next few years while SRVs carrying cargo are currently operational with more planned.
The report found SRV demand is dominated by commercial human spaceflight with about 8,000 “high net worth” individuals (defined as those with over $5 million in net worth) worldwide “sufficiently interested.” These individuals also have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a suborbital flight. The report found 40 percent of those 8,000, or 3,600 individuals, will fly within the 10-year forecast period.
The second largest area of demand is basic and applied research, funded primarily by government agencies but also by research not-for-profits, universities and commercial firms. The report said SRVs offer unique capability primarily in four areas: atmospheric research, suborbital astronomy, longitudinal human research and microgravity. These areas would be of immediate interest to space and science government agencies.
Commercial firms, in addition, could be a source of additional growth.
The remaining demand is generated by aerospace technology test and demonstration, education, satellite deployment, media and public relations.
View the full report at: http://bit.ly/QBA4Xp