Orbital Sciences [ORB] is in discussions with rival launch providers, two domestic and one European, over hosting future NASA Cargo Resupply Services (CRS) missions while its Antares launch vehicle is out of service following its Oct. 28 launch failure.
“Indications…are favorable that these launch operators do have available capacity that is suitable for Cygnus launches as early as second quarter 2015 extending all the way into mid- to late-2016,” company CEO David Thompson told investors Wednesday.
Orbital is aggressively looking to fulfill its CRS contract with NASA despite not being able to use Antares for another 12 to 18 months. Thompson said Orbital will purchase one or two non-Antares launch vehicles for flights of its Cygnus space capsule in 2015 and possibly in early 2016. Thompson said Orbital would combine these with several upgraded Antares rocket launches of additional Cygnus spacecraft in 2016 to deliver all remaining CRS cargo, which are destined for ISS.
By consolidating the cargo of five previously-planned CRS missions into four more capable once, Thompson said Orbital believes it can maintain a similar, or perhaps even a somewhat better, delivery schedule than it had before last week’s launch failure. Thompson said this plan would complete all current CRS program deliveries by the end of 2016. Thompson also said Orbital expects the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) launch pad to return to service with Antares launches in early to mid-2015.
Orbital will also accelerate the introduction of its new Antares propulsion system to 2016 from the previously-planned 2017, Thompson said. As a consequence, he said, Orbital will “likely” move away from using the
Aerojet Rocketdyne AJ-26 in future Antares launches, unless and until those engines can be “conclusively” shown to be flight-worthy. Aerojet Rocketdyne was not able to respond to a request for comment by press time.
Orbital knows what propulsion vehicle it will use in future Antares launches, but Thompson said he didn’t want to reveal which one because Antares is still in the running for a number of new launch contracts. Thompson also declined to comment on the potential contractual ramifications of moving away from the AJ-26. Orbital spokesman Barry Beneski also declined to comment on how many engines the company had in inventory or on its way.
The Tass Russian news agency reported Oct. 31 Orbital selected NPO Energomash’s RD-193. Thompson wouldn’t confirm this Wednesday. Orbital had plans to move away from the AJ-26, a refurbished, but, ultimately, 40-year-old engine, but the Antares launch failure accelerated those plans. Thompson said early evidence strongly suggests one of the two AJ-26 engines Orbital uses in the first stage of Antares failed about 15 seconds after ignition. The company also believes the failure likely originated in, or directly affected, the turbopump machinery, but Thompson warned there is still more analysis required to confirm if this is correct.
Thompson cautioned although the cost for necessary MARS launch complex repairs are still being prepared, he believed the numbers would be a “small fraction” of the initial investment made to bring it online. Orbital-owned equipment would also be covered by insurance, Thompson said, and Orbital would accomplish this with no cost increases to NASA. MARS, a commercial launch site, is located near NASA’s Wallops Island Flight Facility on the eastern shore of Virginia.
Potential launch customers for Orbital’s CRS missions include European provider Arianespace and domestic providers Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) and United Launch Alliance (ULA), the joint venture of Lockheed Martin [LMT] and Boeing [BA]. ULA has two launch vehicles to choose from: Delta IV and Atlas V, both capable of heavy-class missions.
SpaceX has Falcon 9, with a 2016 price point of $61.2 million to lift up to 4.85 megatonnes (mT) to geospatial transfer orbit (GTO), or the unused Falcon Heavy. One megaton is one million tonnes. Arianespace uses its Vega rocket for lighter launches and Soyuz for heavier launches. It also has the Ariane 5, its heavy class launcher.
Cygnus is capable of carrying nearly 2,200 kg of cargo to ISS, but Thompson said it can be expanded to accommodate heavier cargo. SpaceX spokesman John Taylor declined to comment for this story. Representatives from ULA and Arianespace did not respond to requests for comment. Aerojet Rocketdyne is a division of GenCorp [GY].