By Emelie Rutherford
Sen. Ted Stevens’ departure from the post as Senate Appropriations Defense subcommittee (SAC-D) ranking member has generated uncertainly about the fate of initiatives including national missile defense and the Lockheed Martin [LMT]-built F-22 jet fighter, observers said.
Even if the Alaska Republican and convicted felon overcomes hurdles to remain in the Senate–including winning his bid for reelection for a seventh term in today’s election and keeping support of his Senate colleagues, who can vote to expel him–he is not expected to regain the post of SAC-D ranking member when Congress reconvenes next year. Under Senate GOP rules, committee ranking members are replaced if convicted of felonies.
Stevens’ departure as SAC-D ranking member has spurred speculation about how the largely bipartisan subcommittee will operate without him running it alongside his close friend, SAC-D Chairman Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii).
“Stevens and Inouye have been in lockstep on a lot of major issues,” said Tim Stanos, a defense analyst at The Avascent Group in Washington, D.C. Stevens’ departure “would create the potential for the appropriations discussions not to go quite as smoothly, because those two work so well together.”
Some defense industry denizens are sizing up two likely replacements as the SAC-D GOP leader: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.)–the ranking member of the full Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC) and acting defense subcommittee GOP leader since Stevens’ July indictment–and Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.)–the next-ranking subcommittee Republican after Stevens.
“The big question now is what happens in the future, [and that] is largely based on who becomes the subcommittee ranking,” said a defense lobbyist, who described Stevens as “a fantastic supporter of defense, across the board.”
If Cochran takes on the SAC-D ranking member post, while keeping the full committee position, “then the view is it will be not 100 percent status quo, but fairly close to status quo,” the lobbyist said, speaking for other lobbyists as well as Pentagon and industry insiders. One change could be a slight shift in emphasis regarding shipbuilding, considering Cochran’s district includes Northrop Grumman‘s [NOC] Ingalls shipyard, where vessels including the LPD-17 amphibious ships are built.
Yet bigger changes could come if Specter became SAC-D ranking member, the lobbyist predicted.
“Most of us don’t think that he’s got one of those close relationships with Inouye,” the lobbyist said, predicting Specter would introduce more partisanship than Stevens did.
Stevens and Inouye’s friendship has helped advance plans for national missile defense, the lobbyist said.
“Inouye has pushed back at the Democratic leadership, and has been a bigger supporter of national missile defense than his party would have liked,” the lobbyist said. “Most of us believe that that was largely due to the close personal relationship that he had with Stevens, with Stevens saying I want this funded and it’s going into Alaska,” because interceptors are deployed in underground silos at Ft. Greely, Alaska.
The F-22, meanwhile, would continue to be produced in fiscal year 2010 only with the new president’s blessing next year, according to language in the FY ’09 defense authorization act.
Stevens “was one of the most enthusiastic supporters, and this is a time the F-22 needs all the support it can get,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Va. He noted the possibility that the new administration could delay making a decision on the stealth fighters’ fate, leaving lawmakers to address the thorny matter when marking up the FY ’10 defense budget.
“Ted Stevens, absent, that’s not good,” Aboulafia said. “There are other politicians who will support it…[and] it certainly isn’t the end of the F-22, but it’s the demise of a key ally.”
Stevens has been a strong voice in an array of defense debates, on matters including replacing the Air Force’s aerial refueling tanker fleet and supporting National Guard issues including Stryker Brigade Combat Teams, observers said.
Some defense contractors have found the SAC-D to be more “tractable” than the House Appropriations Defense subcommittee, said Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute.
“I think contractors have tended to view Stevens and Inouye as more of a predictable team who would maintain some continuity in weapons spending regardless of which part controlled the chamber,” he said. Stevens’ departure from the SAC-D, Thompson added, “will further confuse the industry as to what the future holds for their programs.”
Inouye also could be in the position to take over the chairmanship of the SAC, as pressure is increasing on the elderly SAC Chairman Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) to step down because of his frailty. If Inouye snags the full committee post, some sources believe he would retain the SAC-D chairmanship as well.
Stevens trailed his Democratic rival, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, by eight points in a poll conducted after a federal jury found Stevens guilty on Oct. 27 on seven felony counts for failing to disclose gifts (Defense Daily Oct. 30).
The 84-year-old Stevens is appealing the verdict and insists he has not technically been convicted because he has not been sentenced.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) released a statement last weekend declaring “a convicted felon is not going to be able to serve in the United States Senate.”
“And as precedent shows us, Senator Stevens will face an ethics committee investigation and expulsion, regardless of his appeals process,” Reid said.
The Democratic leader’s comments came in response to a press release from Stevens that quoted Inouye saying Stevens will retain his Senate seat with the legal process moves forward, and that the verdict will be overturned on appeal.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has called for Stevens to resign, and said if he is reelected and the felony charge stands through the appeals process, “there is zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate.” Stevens could be expelled via a two-thirds Senate vote.
Press reports portray Stevens, the Senate’s longest serving Republican, as maintaining strong support among some Alaska voters.