While the Department of the Air Force is pursuing a fleet of Boeing [BA] E-7 Wedgetails to replace the service’s E-3 AWACS for air moving target indication (AMTI), the department also has discussed AMTI from space since September, 2021.
Now, such space-based AMTI is to receive a boost with $2 billion in the DoD reconciliation bill.
In addition, the U.S. Air Force may start engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) in fiscal 2027 for upgrades to the Wedgetail, including a replacement of the Northrop Grumman [NOC] Multi-Role Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radar.
In 2023, the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) studied future AMTI and ground moving target indication (GMTI) against high technology adversaries, such as China and Russia–a study panel chaired by David Whelan, the former chief technologist of Boeing’s defense unit (Defense Daily, March 16, 2023).
The new DoD reconciliation bill has $100 million for GMTI satellites–an effort under the U.S. Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
The aging AWACS and the GMTI Joint STARS aircraft by Northrop Grumman “are increasingly considered unable to survive in the Highly Contested Environments (HCEs) that could be created by high-end adversaries,” according to the SAB terms of reference (ToR) on the completed 2023 study, which does not have a link on the SAB website. “Hence there is a growing interest in both new air (e.g., E-7) and space-based systems as an alternative means of supporting operations in these environments.”
“Space-based radar and electro-optical sensors can generate imagery of stationary targets,” SAB said. “However, tracking moving targets from Low Earth Orbit requires near-continuous target coverage and hence highly proliferated constellations (hundreds of satellites). In addition, a Space-Based Radar (SBR) able to detect slowly moving targets must have a long antenna which tends to make satellite cost high. For these reasons, past efforts to develop MTI SBRs have not resulted in the deployment of an operational system. However, current commercial efforts are driving down the cost of proliferated LEO satellite constellations with constellations comprised of thousands of satellites proposed and hundreds already launched. In addition, alternative sensing approaches and innovative concepts, at the individual satellite level and at the overall systems level, may help to drive down the cost of satellites.”
“Given these developments and the pressing need, the Department of the Air Force would benefit from an independent assessment of the feasibility of developing and deploying a system incorporating aircraft and satellites to provide surveillance and targeting of moving targets in HCEs,” according to the ToR.
“Space-based radar and electro-optical sensors can generate imagery of stationary targets,” per an Air Force release on the study on the SAB website. “However, tracking moving targets from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) requires near-continuous target coverage and hence highly proliferated constellations (hundreds of satellites). In addition, a Space-Based Radar (SBR) able to detect slowly moving targets must have a long antenna which tends to make satellite cost high.”
“For these reasons, past efforts to develop MTI SBRs have not resulted in the deployment of an operational system,” the Air Force said. “However, current commercial efforts are driving down the cost of proliferated LEO satellite constellations with constellations comprised of thousands of satellites proposed and hundreds already launched. In addition, alternative sensing approaches and innovative concepts, at the individual satellite level and at the overall systems level, may help to drive down the cost of satellites.”
The AMTI language in the DoD reconciliation bill is in the latter’s section on integrated air and missile defense–a section which also contains $7.2 billion to develop/buy/integrate space sensors, $5.6 billion to develop space-based and boost-phase interceptors, $2.4 billion to develop non-kinetic missile defense, and $500 million for national security space launch infrastructure.
The bill’s defense grab bag also includes more than $4 billion for classified military space superiority programs–$300 million of which are under the Air Force rapid capabilities office.
In addition, the DoD reconciliation bill has $528 million for two space situational awareness programs–the Space Force’s Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) radar by Northrop Grumman and the NRO’s SILENTBARKER satellites.
The first DARC site is to turn on in Exmouth in the Western Australian Outback next year as part of a rapid prototyping Middle Tier of Acquisition (MTA) effort, while Sites 2 and 3 are to be in the United Kingdom and Texas.
SILENTBARKER satellites, which the NROL-107 mission carried to orbit in September 2023, are to be an exponential leap in geosynchronous orbit indications and warning for the U.S. Space Surveillance Network.