New Rand Study Expects Future Conflict With al Qaeda

A decade after 9/11 analysts still can’t come to a consensus on al Qaeda’s current condition, a new Rand Corp. study said.

Expect the battle to continue for many years, said author Brian Michael Jenkins, who founded the study of terrorism 40 years ago at Rand, a nonprofit research organization.

The terrorist groups’ ability to conduct large-scale attacks has been drastically reduced and the organization weakened, but “claims of its imminent defeat are hyperbole,” Jenkins said.

“The reason al Qaeda’s leaders think victory is imminent is because they see the battle from entirely different terms than the Western world,” said Jenkins, a senior adviser to Rand’s president. “In their view, war is perpetual, fighting is mandatory and with God on their side, ultimate victory is guaranteed.”

Jenkins examines the current status of the terrorist group, distilling several themes from recent presentations and briefings he has given.

The challenge, Jenkins believes, is to accept continued conflict without a clear-cut ending.

“What Americans may really be seeking is an end to fear–the official termination of terror,” Jenkins said in a statement. “This cannot be delivered by counterterrorist operations. It is a mission of all Americans and their leaders.”

The study, “Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory,” is available at:www.rand.org.