A clear trend is emerging that rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea are in “a sprint, not a marathon,” racing to develop ICBMs that could be tipped with nuclear weapons, a general said last week.
Therefore, it is crucial to counter rising Iranian missile capabilities by installing a missile defense system in Europe, he added.
In countering shorter-range enemy weapons, it also is clear that potential foes are attempting to defeat older missile defense systems such as Patriot interceptors, Lt. Gen. Kevin Campbell, commanding general of the Army Space and Missile Defense Command, told a breakfast forum of the National Defense University Foundation at the Capitol Hill Club.
The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) is made by Raytheon [RTN] to take out tactical ballistic missiles, and since its original version was developed decades ago, it has undergone repeated upgrades and redesigns.
Other elements of the U.S. multi-layered BMD shield include the sea-based Aegis weapon control system by Lockheed Martin [LMT] and Standard Missile family of interceptors from Raytheon; the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system led by Boeing [BA]; the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system led by Lockheed Martin and involving several other contractrors; and eventually the Airborne Laser system by Boeing, Northrop Grumman [NOC] and Lockheed Martin.
In one measure of the rising threat from enemy missiles, Campbell said that last year there were 120-plus ballistic missile tests, “which is more than we saw in previous years. I’ve looked at what’s going on around the globe, and to me it almost looks like a sprint, not a marathon, to get to certain capabilities, particularly the intermediate range and the intercontinental range,” he warned.
“Countries are working very hard and diligently on those two ballistic missile programs,” he said.
Iran is “very open” that it is attempting to develop daunting missile capabilities, Campbell said.
“The most troubling [aspect] about Iran is what they could be doing in the nuclear business, combined with what they could be doing in the space business, which could then lead to an ICBM-class missile, perhaps with a nuclear tip on it,” Campbell said.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Israel should be wiped from the map, and has said Israel soon shall cease to exist.
Iran has fired multiple missiles in a salvo test; fired a missile from a submerged submarine; and announced a space program. Placing a satellite in space requires much the same missile technology as an ICBM.
As well, Iran obstinately refuses to cease producing nuclear materials even in the face of condemnation from industrialized nations and the United Nations. While Iran says it is producing fissile materials to fuel an electrical generating plant, Russia already supplied enough materials to fuel such a plant. And Iran boasts one of the largest proven oil reserves on the planet.
If Iran were to develop an ICBM with a nuclear warhead, it not only could threaten Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, it also could threaten New York and Washington, D.C.
To counter any missiles that Iran might fire toward European nations or the United States, President Bush has urged installation of a missile defense system in the Czech Republic (radar) and Poland (interceptors in ground silos), a plan now awaiting approval from the Czechs and Poles. The system would be a modified version of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system now installed in Alaska and California.
If the European Missile Defense (EMD) system is established, “perhaps we can begin to devalue some of their [Iranian] missiles,” Campbell explained. “It would be terribly short-sighted if we didn’t move toward Europe and close that door,” warding off Iranian missiles, he said.
Optimistically, he said, “that seems to be headed off down the right path.” Czech and Polish leaders have taken steps toward approval of the EMD system, though the U.S. Congress has placed curbs on funding for the EMD until those approvals are obtained.
But Campbell said the EMD plan is enormously rational, giving a president in the White House an option other than raining nuclear strikes down on any enemy that would dare attack the United States or its allies. Rather, a president can order a missile defense system to defeat and annihilate incoming enemy missiles, buying time to decide how to dissuade further attack, short of launching a massive nuclear response, Campbell reasoned.
He also indicated that there is an equal cause for concern on the other side of the planet.
“North Korea has plenty of these devices,” in the intermediate range, and it is clear that the isolated communist nation is working furiously to develop ICBMs, he said.
“We continue to see work that is geared toward developing an intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said.
Pyongyang leaders, rather than being deterred by the failure of a ICBM test missile launch in 2006, are more determined than ever, rushing forward to develop the ultimate missile weapon, Campbell said.
Despite that failure (in which six shorter-range missiles were launched successfully), “we do sense that there’s still work going on to get that program on track and to produce an ICBM-class missile,” he said.
The threat facing the United States and its allies isn’t confined just to ICBMs in dangerous hands, Campbell indicated. There also are burgeoning threats in shorter-range missiles as well.
“Syria as well is doing some interesting work on their missile program, continuing to try to improve it,” he said. “Proliferation of certain technologies remains problematic…as they develop more sophisticated short-range missiles.”
And, he said, “people are looking for ways to defeat our legacy systems, such as Patriot.
The conclusion here is that, despite missile defense systems developed by the United States and other nations such as Israel, those in some rogue nations “still find value in” developing more sophisticated missiles, ranging from theater-range assets, intermediate-range missiles or ICBMs, he said. And many enemy forces still are causing damage with some crude missiles and rockets.
Further, states with ill intent and motives can use the threat of such systems “to give them leverage in their own back yards,” and far beyond in other regions, he said, using “blackmail” to pressure various nations, thwarting U.S. policy objectives, or to deny U.S. entry into an area.
Some potential enemy nations clearly are conducting their missile programs with an eye to how they could block entry of U.S. forces into an area, in event of hostilities, he said. Specifically, there is a new trend of less advanced nations developing missiles that can strike moving targets, such as military forces, in addition to easier, stationary targets such as buildings, he indicated.
Looking more broadly at the U.S. ballistic missile defense system (BMDS), Campbell said it is clear that regional systems such as the sea-based Aegis system, and also THAAD, in the future will need more interceptor missiles, and fire units as well.
“We’ve pressed forward to increase the number of THAAD fire units to be made available to the combatant commanders in the future,” he said.
He also said it is vital to have better links between various elements of the multi-layered global BMD shield, and those links should be automatic, “machine to machine,” rather than human to human.
“Having a centralized entity planning and coordinating missile defense is certainly important to the decision-makers of this country, that they can look to one person and get all the information they need and direction from that person of where we should go,” he said.
“Right now that has been U.S. Strategic Command. And I’m not advocating that they should become the imperial global ballistic missile defense headquarters. But at least now as we’re working on a multiple set of systemss, and learning how to bring it together, I think it’s important that we can have a lead agent who can take the COCOMS, who can work with the developer, work with the services, in bringing this all together. It pays dividends, even though it is cultural … as soon as you take a combatant command such as the Strategic Command and you walk into the European Theater, or the Pacific Theater, or the Central Command Theater, the first question is, why are you here in my neighborhood.
“And after you have that discussion, you have to get through that, and try to show them that there are some seams and gaps that we really haven’t knit together.”