By Dave Ahearn
An Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) test by the Japanese destroyer Chokai (DDG-176) ended in failure when the Standard Missile-3 Block 1A interceptor lost track of the target missile in the final seconds before a planned hit-to-kill.
The Chokai and its crew performed well throughout the test, and the SM-3 also performed flawlessly through its first three stages, according to Rear Adm. Brad Hicks, the U.S. Navy Aegis ballistic missile defense program director. He spoke with several reporters in a teleconference around midnight ET Wednesday-Thursday, after the test in the area of the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii.
This was the second Aegis BMD test failure in less than a month.
In an earlier test, a U.S. Navy destroyer, the USS Paul Hamilton (DDG-60) used an SM-3 to successfully hit a target missile, but then the USS Hopper (DDG-70), also using an SM-3, failed to hit its target.
There also have been two earlier Aegis tests with failures, including one in December 2006 that didn’t destroy the target because of a bollixed system setting.
These latest two failures come as some Democrats in Congress are poised to cut spending on missile defense programs when they convene next year to consider the Missile Defense Agency budget for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2010. Next year will be the first occasion that Democrats have controlled all three centers of power–the White House, Senate and House–since 1993-94.
Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif,), who chairs the House Armed Services Committee strategic forces subcommittee, with oversight of missile defense programs, said missile defense programs will receive hard and long scrutiny next year.
Last week she told Space & Missile Defense Report, sister publication of Defense Daily, that she has serious questions about the value of missile defense programs.
No rogue nations have been dissuaded by formation of the U.S. missile defense shield from continuing to develop long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, she commented.
“The truth is, is that it hasn’t caused anybody to stop doing what they’re doing,” she said. “And if it hasn’t done that, then holy moly, what’s the point” of developing missile defenses?
“It’s like a Hollywood set,” she said. “It’s like a facade. And if it can only work by appointment only, then it isn’t what it was advertised to be.”
Meanwhile, President-elect Obama has said the nation needs missile defense, but he demands proof that missile defense systems will work, as a condition of further funding.
Still, in the coming money debates next year, missile defense advocates will be able to point out that even including the Hopper and Chokai failures, the record for the Aegis tests is an overwhelming 16 successful hits demolishing target missiles out of 20 attempts.
Those successes included the first Japanese attempt. The Japanese destroyer Kongo (DDG-173) successfully used its SM-3 interceptor to kill a target missile. The difference in tests is that the Kongo crew was advised beforehand when the target missile would be launched, while the Chokai crew wasn’t.
Hicks, noting he formerly commanded a cruiser, observed that a record of 16 successes out of 20 attempts is a strong performance. “We have a great record,” he said.
He said a board will be convened to examine why the latest test failed. Hicks declined to speculate on why the SM-3 interceptor missed the target. “I’m confident we’ll find out the root cause” of the Choikai interceptor failure to score a hit, he said.
However, he was asked by Space & Missile Defense Report whether the prior SM-3 successes make it unlikely the Chokai failure stems from some basic design flaw in all SM-3s, and whether it is more likely that the Chokai SM-3 failed because of some flaw or glitch in just that one interceptor.
Hicks said that is likely.
“Obviously, we believe this is hopefully related to this one interceptor,” and doesn’t reflect any basic design flaw in the SM-3 interceptors, he said.
The Chokai test failure cost Japan a $55 million loss, he said, adding, “It wasn’t cheap.”
At the same time, that doesn’t mean Japan is losing faith in the system. Rather, the Chokai will make a port call at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, to pick up more SM-3s.
Japan wishes to obtain missile defense capabilities in the face of a belligerent North Korea, which in the 1990s fired a missile that arced over Japan before landing in the sea.
Further, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and tested one successfully underground, and Pyongyang also has tested multiple missiles in a salvo launch. The reclusive regime also is developing the Taepo Dong-2 ICBM capable of striking targets in the United States. And North Korea also has opened a new missile launch facility in the northwestern area of the peninsular nation.
Hicks himself strongly endorsed the interceptor, observing that “this is the same [one] we used to bring down the satellite.”
That referred to an operation in which the Aegis system on a Navy ship was modified to kill an out-of-control dysfunctional U.S. intelligence satellite carrying a tank filled with toxic hydrazine fuel that could have injured people if the satellite crashed to Earth in a populous area.
In the Chokai test, the target missile was launched from Barking Sands, and about three minutes later the Chokai crew had spotted the target, the Aegis system had developed a tracking and hit solution, and the SM-3 interceptor was launched.
The first, second and third stages of the interceptor performed nominally, without problems, but then came the fourth stage. The nosecone components opened to expose the kill vehicle area, and somehow the program to track the target missile failed.
“It lost track,” Hicks said, only seconds before the hit would have been achieved.
If the kill had occurred, it would have been about 100 nautical miles (roughly 115 statute miles) above Earth, and some 250 miles away from Barking Sands, Hicks said.
It took the interceptor about two minutes flight time to reach the near miss with the target missile.
Meanwhile, the Hamilton was nearby watching the test. The Hamilton Aegis system successfully spotted and tracked the target, and developed a simulated solution and simulated interceptor launch that, if it had been real, would have resulted in a successful hit on the target, Hicks said. The Hamilton didn’t cue the Chokai, however. “It was strictly Chokai‘s engagement,” Hicks said.
The Aegis weapon control system is made by Lockheed Martin [LMT].
The Standard Missile is made by Raytheon [RTN].