The Air Force finally released detailed budget justification documentation for its fiscal 2015 budget request this week, and all Air Force-related program reports at Virtual Analyst have been updated with budget figures. The documents discussed some significant changes planned to several programs both this year and through the Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP). Here are the programs that may attract the most congressional attention in the coming months:
F-35A production ramp maintained — The Air Force ultimately had to cut four F-35As from its budget request this year, but the future years outlook remains the same for the program, with the service expecting to increase buys to 44 in fiscal 2016, 48 in 2017, and 60 in 2018 and 2019. Whether the service will ever realize that goal may depend in large part on whether Congress sees eye-to-eye with the Air Force on an aggressive ramp. Lawmakers have not been as kind to the F-35 as the Pentagon has, and the Air Force may have to fight to keep those quantities as a result. Congress hasn’t altered F-35 quantities in the last two budgets, but it also hasn’t been asked to approve a big ramp in buys yet.
Part of the reason for a reduction in this year’s buys may have been appropriators’ decision to cut $24 million from advance procurement in the fiscal 2014 budget. In the report accompanying the bill, the reasoning provided for the cut was, “reduce by two aircraft.” Lawmakers still approved $339.5 million in advance procurement for the F-35A, so it is unclear which year that cut would apply to.
MC-130J gets a boost — The Air Force didn’t really touch procurement quantities over the FYDP for the C-130J or HC-130J variants, but the MC-130J was a different story. Instead of buying 19 aircraft between fiscal 2016 and 2018, the Air Force now expects to purchase 26 aircraft. The reason for the increase may have something to do with the fact that the Air Force is retiring older C-130s, as the service may be moving aircraft to the left in order to mitigate the retirements. According to the Air Force’s budget overview released last week:
“In accordance with the Intra-theater Airlift Working Group Proposal, the FY2015 budget request right-sizes the Air Force’s intra-theater airlift fleet by retiring C-130H aircraft to reduce excess capacity within the fleet, while still fully supporting strategy and direct support requirements,” it states. “The C-130 enterprise reduces to 318 total aircraft in FY 2015 but grows to 328 as the final J-models arrive within the FYDP.”
Photo: U.S. Air Force
Service to slash Reaper buys — The Reaper will take a beating over the FYDP if the Air Force has its way. Last year the service planned to buy 24 Reapers per year from fiscal 2015 through 2018, but the Air Force has cut 29 aircraft from those years and only plans to buy 16 in fiscal 2019. If recent history is any indication, however, Congress may push back against this move.
Lawmakers were irritated at the Air Force last year when, after Congress added 12 Reapers to the fiscal 2013 budget, the service responded by cutting 12 from its fiscal 2014 request. In language ultimately not included in the fiscal 2014 appropriations bill, the House Appropriations Committee wrote in its mark-up that the decision “represents complete and brazen contradiction of congressional intent, which was to reduce the MQ–9 production rate in a more orderly and less disruptive manner.”
Appropriators ultimately added eight aircraft to the request, and it appears the Air Force has responded yet again with a move to slash buys back down to 12 aircraft in fiscal 2015. Congress may once again take the Air Force to task over this, but if lawmakers have difficulty finding money for the program, the service may gets its way anyway. The reduction in buys over the FYDP suggests that the service believes it needs to significantly cut back on MQ-9 orders anyway.
First KC-46 buys — This marks the first year of procurement of the KC-46 tanker, and the first peek into projected quantities over the next few years. The Air Force wants to buy seven tankers this year before quickly ramping up to 12 next year and 18 in fiscal 2017 before leveling off to 17 in 2018 and 15 in 2019. The Air Force warned that, should sequestration remain in effect, it would reduce investment in the KC-46, although the budget overview document did not go into detail on exactly what that would mean for future quantities.
Along with a boost in funding for the F-35A, the Air Force’s procurement of KC-46s is the reason why the service’s budget is higher than last year’s.
Big increase in SDB buys planned — A year after trimming 86 Small Diameter Bombs from its request, the Air Force is projecting a significant increase in procurement for the SDB over the FYDP. The Air Force is generally standing pat this year with 246 bombs as opposed to the 250 planned, but it is increasing buys from fiscal 2016 through 2018 by 164 bombs, and expects to go from buying 295 bombs in fiscal 2018 to a whopping 918 bombs the next year. However, the question is how Congress will react to the increase: in language ultimately not adopted in either defense bill last year, both appropriators and authorizers raised concerns about delays to the program and how that might affect when bombs would be ready for fielding. “The Committee is closely monitoring SDB II and believes an overall review of the SDB program and its capability mix is appropriate,” the Senate Appropriations Committee stated in its mark-up.