More than a decade of conflict is winding down, but there are still risks to U.S. national security and since there’s only so much that can be done on prevention, building resilience is critical, the Defense Department Assistant Secretary for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs said yesterday.
A big problem is still the risk of long-term, large scale electric power grid outage, Paul Stockton said during a panel discussion at an Aspen Institute annual security forum.
And the biggest risks would not necessarily come from terrorists.
“I’d start with Mother Nature,” Stockton said. Consider something like the 1812 New Madrid earthquake. It sent the Mississippi flowing north, not south, and power was out for months. Something like an electromagnetic pulse could be another threat, and other kinds of threat vectors beyond cyber threats to the infrastructure.
Long electric grid power outages are a threat to DoD mission assurance, Stockton said, because DoD depends on U.S. facilities and infrastructure to operate at home and, importantly, to operate abroad.
Since state and non-state adversaries are not “stupid, they’re clever and adaptive,” there’s the risk of a “profoundly asymmetric attack here at home” on critical infrastructure not owned by DoD but upon which it is “profoundly dependent.”
Private sector and agency risk assessments for the continuity of operations is not enough, Stockton said. Industry needs to step up, and first continue to strengthen its own plans for continuity of operations.
Then industry needs to consider what happens after the first few days of a large scale outage. What happens when company officials call the fuel company and the line is busy. The need for fuel for backup generators would be overwhelming.
Industry needs better risk analysis and planning. DoD and the Department of Homeland Security will help, he said.
Another way to mitigate risk is to develop innovative partnerships so DoD can execute its core mission.
“You can’t regulate a way out of this problem,” Stockton said. It has to be done on a voluntary basis. Utility companies are working with DoD and DHS on a national capital initiative, helping Virginia Dominion Power, Pepco, and Baltimore Gas and Electric, with critical analysis as the utilities put together future plans that also account for cyber and other potential problems.
Priorities need to be discussed ahead of problems, for example, ensuring the national security mission is included in any priority listing of who or what gets its power restored first, he said.