Iran is moving ahead solidly with construction of a little-noticed heavy water reactor, a new study by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) discloses.
If Iran can succeed in obtaining some smuggled components for the facility, it can be completed, the ISIS study concluded.
The study, by David Albright and Paul Brannan, observes that most global focus is on another Iranian nuclear facility, at Natanz.
But a comparison of pictures taken more than a year apart shows major progress in work on a heavy water reactor at Arak, the report states.
“Much of the focus on Iran’s nuclear facilities remains fixed on the Natanz enrichment plants and Iran’s progress toward mastering the gas centrifuge uranium enrichment process,” the report observes. Speculation is building as to whether Israel will use a strike to take out the Natanz facility, much as Israel hit a Syrian reactor under construction.
But little notice has been given the reactor at Arak.
“While seldom noticed, Iran continues with construction of a heavy water reactor at Arak, called the IR-40, which has a declared power of 40 megawatts-thermal,” the report observed.
The ISIS think tank “obtained commercial satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe of the Arak heavy water reactor taken on Oct. 7,” the report explained.
“A comparison of this image to one taken by GeoEye OrbView-3 on Feb. 25, 2007 shows significant progress.
“Construction of the reactor dome is nearing completion and other buildings adjacent to the reactor appear much further along. Construction of the cooling towers also appears complete in the October 2008 image, whereas its foundation is absent in the February 2007 image.”
Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear materials production program, despite international sanctions. While Iran claims the materials are for electrical generation, Western leaders fear Iran will use the fissile material to construct nuclear weapons.
Further, Iran has launched multiple missiles in salvo tests, launched a missile from a submerged submarine, and announced plans for a space program that would involve similar technologies to those in intercontinental ballistic missiles.
“According to a senior official close to the [International Atomic Energy Agency] in September … Arak reactor construction will end in 2011 and the reactor will achieve criticality in 2013,” the report noted. “Several years ago, at least one Iranian official stated publicly that the reactor could be finished in 2009, suggesting delays in its construction. One unknown is whether Iran would decide to speed up construction of the reactor site.”
The report assessed the bomb-making potential of the Arak reactor.
“If operating optimally, the reactor at Arak would produce about 9 kilograms of plutonium annually, or enough for about two nuclear weapons each year, should Iran choose to separate plutonium from the reactor’s irradiated fuel,” the report estimated. “Extracting plutonium from irradiated fuel requires a reprocessing facility. Iran has insisted that it will not build any such facilities; however, suspicions remain that it could do so — perhaps even at this site.”
The report discusses progress in building the Arak reactor thus far, and categorizes the work remaining to be done, concluding that Iran may face difficulties in completing the reactor unless it can successfully smuggle components past international blockades.
“Iran can produce much of the equipment needed to build and operate these reactor facilities,” the report states. “To acquire some of the missing equipment, however, it is expected to turn to illicit overseas procurement. If it fails to defeat international sanctions, Iran may have to further delay the start-up of the reactor.”
To read the illustrated ISIS report in full, please go to http://www.isisnucleariran.org/assets/pdf/Arak_13November2008.pdf on the Web.