By Carlo Munoz
As U.S. and NATO forces continue to pummel military targets in Libya to enforce a United Nations-mandated no-fly zone, American commanders are concerned that global terrorist groups may look to fill the potential power vacuum left behind should Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qaddafi be ousted from power.
There is a “very, very legitimate concern” that groups such as Al Qaeda is looking to strengthen its postion in Northern Africa, and see the deteriorating political condition in Libya as a way to do just that, according to U.S. Africa Command chief Army Gen. Carter Ham.
AFRICOM is the lead organization in charge of the U.S. task force heading up American-led operations in Libya.
The worst-case scenario is that Al Qaeda and other affiliated groups could move into Libya reestablish the country as a staging area for terrorist attacks against targets in Africa, Europe and the United States–either with the support of a Qaddafi-led regime or in lieu of a viable Libyan government–Ham said during a briefing yesterday from AFRICOM headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany.
“We are monitoring that very, very closely,” the four-star general said. “We must operate under the assumption that [Qaddafi] would like to see that happen. We must…keep our guard and our vigilance very high.”
To that end, Ham said that members of U.S. intelligence have been “very active” in support of ongoing coalition operations in country and of any potential fallout from those operations, adding the task force and AFRICOM overall “have had the access and the authorities to get the information we need” to support the U.N. mandate.
While declining to go into specifics on the role of U.S. intelligence on the ground in Libya, the AFRICOM chief did say there was no indication the Qaddafi regime was planning or supporting any terrorist attacks in response to the U.N. action. Furthermore, Ham said there was “no evidence” from intel sources that Libyan troops were receiving materiel support from other countries in the region.
The concern of anti-American terror groups gaining ground in the volatile country is one of many issues U.S. commanders are weighing as they prepare to hand over control of the Libyan mission. U.S. commanders are in the early planning stages for a transitional headquarters, consisting of NATO and coalition forces, to take over enforcement of the no-fly zone, according to Ham.
He refused to put a timeline on when that transitional headquarters would be stood up, or when U.S. forces would hand over control of the mission to NATO forces. But the four- star general did say the effort would not be a “prolonged situation” with U.S. troops engaged in continued combat in Libya.
“The first thing that has got to happen is the identification of what that organization is,” Ham said. “But…we have been from the start how we would affect this transition once that follow-on headquarters is established. It is not so simple as having a handshake some place and saying ‘OK, you are now in charge.'”
One key to that hand over will be maintaining effective control of the air and sea campaigns during the transition period, “to make sure we have no disruption whatsoever in the ongoing operation, and…we put none of our aircrews at risk as we go through this transition…there are some complex tasks that have to occur.”
Aside from working the nuts-and-bolts basics for a transitional headquarters, U.S. military planners are also preparing for a situation where they would have to enforce a no- fly zone over Qaddafi-ruled Libya.
“I see a situation where that could be the case,” Ham said on the possibility of Gadhafi remaining in power once the U.S. transitions the Libyan peacekeeping mission. “I could see accomplishing the military mission…and the current leader remain the current leader. Is that ideal? I do not think anyone would say [that].”
But he also reiterated that the U.N. mandate was clear and that no actions were being taken by U.S. or NATO forces to locate or take out Qaddafi as part of the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
Moreover, Ham said he does not foresee any “significant change” to the U.S. and NATO mission in Libya once operations are handed over to coalition forces.
Late last week, U.S. and NATO forces began attacks against Libyan government forces after members of the United Nations security council approved plans to establish a no-fly zone over the western part of the country, including Benghazi where anti-Qaddafi forces are headquartered.
Since the beginning of combat operations, U.S. warships have launched a total of 124 Tomahawk cruise missiles against pro-Gadhafi forces against a number of key anti-aircraft and communications sites in and around government locations in Tripoli and Sirte, Vice Adm. Bill Gortney, director of the Joint Staff, said in a March 20 briefing at the Pentagon.
Air Force B-2 bombers also began running combat sorties against Qaddafi’s troops who were advancing against rebel forces in Benghazi and against a suspected command and control center located in Qaddafi’s personal compound near Tripoli.
Since then, American and coalition bombers and fighters have flown between 60 to 80 missions against a variety of government targets, and launched an additional 12 Tomahawk strikes were launched yesterday against government-owned Scud missile systems, anti-aircraft installations and command and control centers, Ham said yesterday.