The international proliferation of guided munitions coupled with the high personnel costs already burdening the Pentagon will force military planners to increasingly shift to unmanned autonomous vehicles and systems to carry out core mission requirements, according to a study by progressive think tank the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
The analysis said that other nations and potential adversaries, including non-state actors, are catching up the United States in the use of guided munitions and integrated networks for battle, diminishing the U.S. military’s advantages in the air, at sea or on land.
“For a variety of reasons–the geopolitics of rising powers, the global diffusion of technology and counter-reactions by its adversaries chief among them–the preeminence enjoyed by the United States in this regime is starting to erode,” the CNAS study said. “As a result, U.S. defense strategists and force planners are confronted by a rapidly approaching future in which guided munitions and battle networking technologies have proliferated widely and are employed by both state and non-state actors across the full range of military operations.”
The document, called 20YY: Preparing for War in the Robotic Age, said while policymakers and military planners are well aware of the challenge and have successfully deployed unmanned systems in combat, more needs to be done, including reining in the costs associated with manned operations.
“While senior force planners and policymakers at the Pentagon, White House and Capitol Hill increasingly recognize the potential challenges and costs of operating against adversaries with such sophisticated weapons, much remains to be done to prepare the U.S. military for fighting against adversaries capable of firing dense, accurate salvos of guided munitions,” the study said.
The report published Wednesday said the employment of more unmanned and autonomous systems has the potential to alter core concepts of defense strategy, such as deterrence and reassurance.
“These largely remotely piloted air and ground vehicles will soon be replaced by increasingly autonomous systems in all physical operating domains (air, sea, undersea, land and space) and across the full range of military operations,” the document said.
“The United States will be driven to these systems out of operational necessity and also because the costs of personnel and the development of traditional crewed combat platforms are increasing at an unsustainable pace,” the study added.