If Sen. Barak Obama of Illinois wins the Democratic presidential nomination and then goes on to be elected to the White House, the defense industry better brace for tough times, according to Heidi Wood, Morgan Stanley defense analyst.
While Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, might be better, with his military and prisoner-of-war background, his past crusades against contractors also could mean a McCain presidency might be bad news for Pentagon programs and the companies involved in them, Wood predicted.
She spoke before a Missile Defense Agency-American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics conference in Washington, D.C.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, another contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, might not be that bad for defense, Wood said. Both Clinton and McCain sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee, where McCain is the ranking Republican.
“Obama looks to be a growing concern for [Department of Defense] spending,” Wood said. “McCain and Clinton are probably better for overall defense spending. Obama is an uncertainty.”
However, Wood said, McCain “going after defense contractors worries investors,” while Clinton gives investors “less of a worry.”
For example, McCain blasted an Air Force tanker plane leasing contract for costing more than buying planes outright. He also helped to unearth the fact that Darleen Druyun, an Air Force procurement official, negotiated with The Boeing Co. [BA] to lease 100 new aerial refueling tanker aircraft at the same time she negotiated with Boeing to get a $250,000 a year job there.
Boeing helped to discover the deal; fired Druyun and Mike Sears, the CFO who hired her; and cooperated with authorities who later put Druyun and Sears behind bars. But Boeing lost the contract, and then the Air Force gave it to a Northrop Grumman Corp. [NOC] and European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. team to supply Airbus tanker planes.
Clinton’s home state, New York, includes some contractors, such as the Lockheed Martin Corp. [LMT] center that is outfitting the US101 helicopters based on an AgustaWestland (Finmeccanica) Italian-U.K. design that are to become the future Marine One helicopters transporting presidents from the White House South Lawn.
Wood also said that defense contractor stocks have performed brilliantly in the past year, with aerospace stocks and defense company stocks jumping by 19 percent in price, versus a gain of only 4 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.