NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.--The 2020s will be a challenging time period for the Defense Department as it grapples with how to pay for numerous high-priority weapons endeavors with bills that arrive at roughly the same time.
“When we get to the (2020s), a lot of things have to be paid for at the same time,” Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (AT&L) Frank Kendall told reporters Wednesday following a presentation here at the 2014 Air and Space Conference hosted by the Air Force Association. “That is a significant problem for us.”
DoD is about to embark on high-priority, and high-cost, programs like nuclear weapons modernization and the new Long Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) in addition to programs already in development like the F-35 and the new KC-46 aerial refueling tanker. According to the Air Force’s fiscal year 2015 budget request, the service anticipates needing $166.4 billion beyond FY ’19 to complete its portion of the F-35 program and acquire its final tally of 1,763 conventional F-35A variants.
The Air Force also anticipates needing nearly $25 billion beyond FY ’19 to complete the KC-46 program. In addition to these programs of record, the Air Force could embark on a next-generation rocket engine program which would also likely cost billions of dollars. DoD wants to eventually get away from relying on the Russian-made RD-180 for national security launches.
DoD spokesman Cmdr. William Urban said Wednesday while the relative size of the currently projected “bow wave” of big-ticket weapon program spending in the 2020s is roughly similar to those in previous years, several factors make it more concerning. This, Urban said, includes the operations-investment balance, congressional rejection of important cost-saving initiatives like compensation reform and base closures and the downside risk of fiscal uncertainty.
Urban said the projected funding for the first five years after this year’s future years defense plan (FYDP) for 2021-2025 is on par with the projected funding for first five years after FYDPs in the past 10-20 years, relative to the sizes of their respective budgets.
“We have had a bow wave as long as we have been analyzing the post-FYDP timeframe, and we expect to continue to have one as long as we are moving forward,” Urban said in an email.