Since arriving in Afghanistan 18 months ago, the Marine Corps’ two K-MAX unmanned helicopters have earned high marks for their ability to deliver cargo in support of operations in remote areas, while putting fewer lives at risk by lessening the need for ground convoys vulnerable to roadside bombs or ambushes.

The Marine Corps, along with Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), developed the two autonomously flying helicopters under an urgent requirement called Cargo Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). After some testing, the vehicles were shipped to Afghanistan and began operations in December 2011. The K-MAXs were initially to deploy for six months, but their effectiveness prompted the Marines to extend the stay, and now they are planned to be there indefinitely–or until U.S. troops come home.

That’s where the future of the Cargo UAS program remains uncertain despite all of K-MAX’s success. The military is slated to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014. There are no plans at the moment to purchase additional K-MAXs, no program of record and no clearly defined requirements, at least made public, for the aircraft beyond Afghanistan.

Further, the Pentagon is in an era of reduced spending and budget uncertainty. Without a ground war, it could be more challenging to fund the Cargo UAS program even if the Marines identified future requirements.

 
“I don’t think there is any question that the operational requirement will persist,” said Loren Thompson, a defense consultant and analyst. “It’s not hard to figure out what your requirements are but doing it with the money you have is a separate issue.”

Navy Capt. Patrick Smith, the program manager at Navy and Marine Corps multi-mission tactical unmanned aircraft at NAVAIR, told reporters on a conference call recently that options are being explored for the current fleet, including additional testing and demonstrations. He said the program’s future will depend on how the Marine Corps defines the next steps for the capability.

“There’s definitely been lessons learned going forward from the 18 months we’ve been there,” he said.

The K-MAXs have delivered nearly 3.3 million pounds of cargo in Afghanistan, said Maj. Daniel Lindblom, who, as an officer for a Marine UAV squadron, has been overseeing K-MAX operations in the country. In one instance they delivered 30,000 pounds of supplies in six flights in a 24-hour period. The K-MAX’s have ferried everything from ammunition to generators to basic goods like water, food or even mail.

Lindblom said there have also been several emergency resupply demands under his watch. In January, his team learned a forward operating base in southern Afghanistan’s Helmand province was under fire and running low on ammunition. He said the unit was able to mobilize within hours and delivered 60 mm mortar rounds and 30 mm ammo on consecutive days to the base’s landing zone.

“That’s where we really make our money,” Lindblom said in the conference call, adding the unmanned birds were sent after it was determined an air delivery using manned MH-53 helicopters was too risky. Lindblom said a K-MAX delivery is equal to one truck driven by two Marines, or two MH-53 helicopters, which each require a crew of five.

“That’s 10 less people whose lives are at risk flying into that LZ,” he said.

The Lockheed Martin [LMT]-and Kaman Aerospace [KAMN]-built aircraft cost about $11 million for each system, with an hourly flight bill of about $1,200-$1,300. Adding in contractor services, the total monthly bill for operating the K-MAXs comes to about $1 million.

“None of these systems are cheap,” Micah Zenko, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations who has written extensively on UAVs, said. “I think the biggest constraint will not be the mission to use them, but the money to buy them.”

Zenko added, however, that UAVs bring a level of flexibility that makes them suitable for a variety of missions, even without a ground war and as the Pentagon heightens focus on the more maritime oriented Asia-Pacific region.

“The one thing that we have learned about (UAVs), however they may be used, is that people have found other missions for them,” he said. “Whenever they are deployed to any theater people find a reason to use them.”