With the fiscal 2015 spending bill in the books and the fiscal 2016 budget request just around the corner, how are Pentagon programs faring? In today’s analysis, we take a look at the prospects of selected Air Force programs — how Congress treated them in their most recent appropriations and authorization bills, and what is likely to happen in this upcoming budget cycle.
MQ-9 — Despite a recently leaked Defense Department Inspector General report stating that the Air Force hasn’t justified the money it is spending on Reapers, Congress does not appear to be a big fan of the service’s move to cut buys, restoring all 12 Reapers to the fiscal 2015 budget at a cost of $145 million. The Pentagon has been trying to cut buys for a while now, and Congress is having none of it. The fiscal 2013 budget called for 24 aircraft to be purchased for the foreseeable future, and then lawmakers suddenly added 12 aircraft that year, feeling that the Air Force was ramping down too quickly from buying 48 the year before. The Air Force responded by cutting the fiscal 2014 buy from 24 to 12, angering appropriators who called the move a “brazen contradiction of congressional intent” and restored most of the buy. In this most recent budget, the Air Force went even further, cutting buys to 12 again and eliminating a total of 25 aircraft over the next four years. Once again, appropriators simply restored the funding. There are no indications that this battle will end with this year’s budget — the question is, will the Inspector General report finally convince enough lawmakers to stop buying as many Reapers? Read more MQ-9 analysis >>>
MQ-1 — Many lawmakers are apparently convinced that if there’s one thing the Air Force can’t have too much of at this point in time, it’s unmanned aircraft. In addition to restoring Reaper buys, authorizers added language that would ban the service from retiring MQ-1 Predator aircraft. Specifically, the language stipulates that none of the funds made available in fiscal 2015 may be used to retire any Predators, with the exception of damaged aircraft that the Air Force deems to be not economically viable to fix. Read more MQ-1 analysis >>>
SBIRS — Lawmakers didn’t make many changes when it came to funding for this program, but authorizers have placed some limitations on how the funds can be used — likely out of concerns about the program’s poor past performance. Language added to the bill stipulates that the Air Force can only spend 50 percent of the appropriated funds until the service provides a report to the defense committees certifying that the funds will be used for data exploitation of the current SBIRS program of record, or that the data has already been fully exploited. Also, the bill limits research and development funds for the SBIRS hosted payload and wide-field-of-view test bed until the service reports to the committees an analysis of alternatives to the program of record. The program has experienced significant overruns in the past, with a 2012 Government Accountability Office report indicating that the Air Force would experience an overrun of $438 million and a delay of one year for the third and fourth satellites. Authorizers appear to want to keep a close eye on spending as the Air Force prepares to make some significant moves within the program. Read more SBIRS analysis >>>
KC-46 — Fiscal 2015 was a year of firsts for the KC-46 tanker program, as the aircraft flew for the first time just a few weeks ago, and both authorizers and appropriators signed off on the first-ever buy of production aircraft, approving $1.58 billion for seven aircraft. This program is one of the Pentagon’s highest priorities, and both the Air Force and Congress are highly incentivized to keep this program on track and meeting an aggressive ramp up to 12 and then 18 aircraft over the next two years. The Senate Armed Services Committee noted in its markup that failing to reach that ramp will upset the contract and lead to significant cost increases, something that program has avoided for the most part so far — and Congress will want to keep it that way in fiscal 2016. Read more KC-46 analysis >>>
C-130 — The battle over the C-130 Avionics Modernization Program (AMP) goes on. Authorizers added language once again banning the Air Force from attempting to end the program, arguing that the service plans to operate 150 C-130H models for the foreseeable future, and therefore such aircraft will need to be modernized so the Air National Guard isn’t stuck with obsolete aircraft. The Air Force doesn’t seem to think the AMP program is worth the money, but until the service can come up with a more convincing plan, the Pentagon likely will be fighting an uphill battle against Congress in fiscal 2016 if the service attempts to end the program again. Read more C-130 analysis >>>
SDB — The Small Diameter Bomb II program is still recovering from two flight test failures in early 2013 that has delayed Milestone C (contract award), prompting appropriators to slash $30 million of the $70.6 million request in the fiscal 2015 budget. Media reports from September indicated that the SDB was closer to low-rate initial production after some successful test flights, but the program is still months away from achieving Milestone C, we reported. Any further delays will make cuts in fiscal 2016 all the more likely. Read more SDB analysis >>>