Missile defense in Europe has long been a contentious issue, and the Obama Administration’s effort to establish two permanent ballistic missile defense sites on the continent based on the Aegis BMD system used aboard Navy destroyers has been no exception. This is due not only because of the price tag of Aegis Ashore, which will total approximately $2.3 billion, but also the international implications – specifically, concerns about what impact Russia will have on the program in light of its relationship with Iran and the recent situation with Ukraine.
The Gatestone Institute noted in a recent report that “there is presently concern that phases two [installation of a site in Romania] and three [installation of a site in Poland] of the EPAA – preventing Iranian short- and medium-range ballistic missiles from reaching Eastern Europe – will be delayed under pressure to make concessions to both Russia and Iran to secure a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.”
In March, Russia asked the United States for a legally binding agreement to ensure that missile interceptors in Europe would never target Russia’s nuclear arms, which the United States refused. Instead, the Obama Administration offered an executive agreement to Russia to exchange data on the missiles including current and projected number of missiles.
Russia’s recent actions with regards to Ukraine makes the missile defense site in Poland – phase three – an even stronger U.S. objective, said Steven Pifer, director of the Brookings Institute’s Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative.
“Phase three will go ahead. The administration is more resolute since Russia’s actions in making sure that the program will proceed as planned,” Pifer said. “They are looking to make our allies a symbolic commitment of US forces on the ground.”
The Romanian site installation is scheduled for 2015, and the installation in Poland should take place in 2018. It will include upgraded Block IIA SM-3 missiles. Frank Rose, deputy assistant secretary for space and defense policy at the Department of State, said in a recent address that the United States’ commitment to all three phases of the Phased Adaptive Approach remains “ironclad.”
Although theoretically it’s possible the United States would offer to delay or cancel phases of Aegis Ashore installations if Iran agrees to freeze its missile defense programs, Pifer thinks that’s not a realistic scenario.
“It’s unlikely that Iran will agree to freeze its missile defense program,” he said.
Reporting and analysis by Ellen Prichard