The Pentagon recently released its long-term vision for unmanned systems, titled “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap FY2013-2038” [PDF]. The report dives deep into how the Defense Department expects unmanned systems to evolve technologically and operationally over the next 25 years. In one particularly revealing section, it provides a picture of just how the Pentagon might use some of its newest unmanned assets against a hostile nation at the end of the decade.
Beginning on page 11, the report raises a hypothetical scenario set in the year 2020 and involving the fictional rogue nation of Norachi (which strongly resembles Iran in the description provided). In the scenario, the U.N. requests surveillance and enforcement support from the United States over suspicions that Norachi is attempting to develop nuclear weapons.
To monitor Norachi’s activities and either disprove concerns or provide a “smoking gun,” U.S. forces would need to set up an extensive surveillance operation:
To survey the land and sea approaches to the country, the Air Force’s and Navy’s unmanned systems, including the high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) UAS with its multiday ISR and communication relays, provide extended persistence with a wide variety of sensors.
That description would fit the Navy’s newest entry in the unmanned arena, the MQ-4C Triton, a high-altitude long-endurance ISR asset that could cover a broad area for long periods of time. The Triton — formerly known as the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance system — just completed its ninth test flight where it flew at an altitude of 50,000 feet and for more than nine hours, according to a Jan. 7 Defense Daily story. Eventually, the Navy expects to operate 68 of the aircraft with procurement to begin in fiscal 2015 — meaning the Navy will probably have a decent amount of available Tritons at its disposal by 2020.
In addition to surveillance, the United States would then need an asset to keep exports from making their way to Norachi, the report states — which is where a very different unmanned asset would come into play.
[T]he aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its supporting carrier strike group ships are tasked to help enforce the maritime portion of the ban on exports to Norachi. Using the Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike System (UCLASS), persistent ISR and strike capabilities are available to the CCDR.
This is a hopeful outlook from the Pentagon, as while the Triton is not far off from entering the fleet, the UCLASS has a good bit of development work to go. Its predecessor, the Unmanned Combat Air System-Demonstrator (UCAS-D), has only recently demonstrated unmanned takeoffs and landings aboard an aircraft carrier. In fact, USNI News reported in November that the draft request for proposals for UCLASS had not yet received final approval from senior leadership. The Government Accountability Office and congressional committees are doubtful that the Navy can develop, build, and field 24 UCLASS aircraft by fiscal 2020.
Meanwhile, U.S. forces attempt to create a unified picture of Norachi’s activities using a diverse set of smaller unmanned assets:
After a few days, unmanned reconnaissance flights and UMS intelligence establish pattern of life in the region and at the WMD facilities, including maritime traffic in the region. Activity-based algorithms exploit the incoming intelligence data and conclude anomalies exist in the Norachi nuclear facility network. Additional unmanned assets are employed to further investigate these anomalies. Special Operations Forces deploy inexpensive, small, low-power unmanned sensor systems. One bird-like vehicle is deployed to conduct an overwatch of one noted facility. It perches on an electrical power line where it derives its power to gather and transmit images. Rugged UGS are deployed; they navigate over difficult terrain autonomously and provide closer video surveillance.
After establishing with near certainty that Norachi is attempting to develop nuclear weapons, worldwide tension escalates and the United States “maintains a heightened level of surveillance to detect any shipments from the WMD facilities,” the report states. At this point, U.S. forces use high-altitude aircraft to provide cueing information for a strike package that will look markedly different from the ones used in the past:
Launched from the off-shore aircraft carrier, the strike package comprises of manned tactical aircraft with numerous combat support UAS providing tactical intelligence communication relay, jamming support, and strike support. The joint strike fighter operates as a command ship and works in concert with its supporting unmanned systems as a seamless network of strike and jamming aircraft.
It’s unclear what types of unmanned aircraft could be involved in this effort, but the report makes clear that Pentagon leadership wants a flexible force of platforms with a range of capabilities. The end result could be a diverse mix of many different types of unmanned aircraft. Developers of future unmanned aircraft will likely need to make sure their systems can host a variety of different payloads if possible.
Finally, there’s the question of securing the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) material and getting it out of the area, and a certain unmanned aircraft that has been getting its feet wet in Afghanistan in the last few years could play a big part of that:
An extraction team follows shortly behind, secures the area, and locates the WMD. The extraction team loads the cargo on unmanned vertical-lift transports and departs the area.
The Lockheed Martin/Kaman-built K-MAX unmanned helicopter certainly fits the bill for this job. The Pentagon first sent the K-MAX to Afghanistan in late 2011 to help ferry supplies and reduce dangerous road convoys, which was originally supposed to be a temporary deployment but will end up lasting much longer. The passage above suggests that the Pentagon sees the unmanned cargo delivery role as very important in the future, and for more than just reducing convoys. Lockheed/Kaman can expect some competition if the Defense Department seeks a long-term boost in orders of a cargo UAS, as the Boeing A160 Hummingbird is also vying for that role — although the K-MAX certainly has a leg up so far.