By Ann Roosevelt
U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) Dec. 4 released Joint Operating Environment 2008 (JOE 2008), a report that examines trends and contexts of the future operating environment and their implication for the future joint force.
“The purpose of a Joint Operating Environment is to project this future scenario set to set the problem, to provide the context for the future joint force and then to provide something for concept developers to work from as they develop concepts for the future joint force,” Rear Adm. John Richardson, director of Strategy and Policy at U.S. Joint Forces Command, said in a media roundtable.
Predictions about the future are risky, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation and U.S. Joint Forces Commander Marine Gen. James Mattis wrote in the foreword to the 51-page document. But he warned that if no one tries to forecast the future there is no doubt the United States will be caught off guard.
“Creativity in technological development, operational employment and conceptual framework is necessary, and it’s our intent that the JOE inspires an openness to change so urgently needed when both high- and low-intensity threats abound,” Mattis wrote.
The JOE is no prediction of the future, Richardson said, but the start of a major dialogue the command hopes to stimulate among those interested in national security, the future, and international partners. Engagement and discussion with senior leaders allows an understanding of “the levers, the signposts, the indicators” of a particular course or another into the future, he said.
JOE 2008 states its case early on in the introduction: “The next quarter century will challenge U.S. joint forces with threats and opportunities ranging from regular and irregular wars in remote lands, to relief and reconstruction in crisis zones, to sustained engagement in the global commons.”
A dialogue wrestling with the ideas and possibilities delineated in JOE will help find the indicators and will allow the joint force to find potential answers to the challenges, he said.
Unique among myriad future studies is that JOE focuses on answering the demand signal for the joint force, Richardson said.
The JOE focuses on conflict and war, and states, “in many respects the nature of war is not going to change” it states. “Yet, the nature of war will remain closer to Agincourt than to Star Trek,” remaining a human problem.
“The nature of war will remain constant, the character of war, how war is fought and the context that give rise to conflict and opportunities, that will change a great deal as the strategic environment changes, technology changes and our enemy adapts to our operations and so forth,” Richardson said.
To consider human nature and human problems, taking a step back to see how human nature reacted to similar situations in the past is helpful. Thus, JOE is informed with many examples from history.
JOE examines trends that might impact national security, how they might combine to define some context, and the unique contribution of the JOE is: What are the implications for the joint force?
“We see a lot of challenges out in the future,” Richardson said. This could be considered a worst-case scenario, or a challenging scenario, but that’s the way we are. We can hope for the best but we must plan for the worst.”
The JOE offers the implications that serve as the basis of the companion Capstone Concept for Joint Operations (CCJO), which outlines how the joint force will operate in future. This is a Joint Chiefs of Staff effort.
Mattis writes: “If the JOE serves as the ‘problem statement,’ the CCJO serves as the way the Joint Force will operate in the future to ‘solve’ the problem. These two documents should be seen as two parts of the whole.”
From the CCJO flows a library of operational concepts, on such things as irregular warfare, conventional warfare, cooperative security engagement, integrating concepts, Richardson said. All are derived from the CCJO.
“We would envision from the demand signal articulated in the JOE that is then met at the highest most broad level articulated in the CCJO and then that propagates down, setting the demand signal for those capabilities that are required to conduct operations in each of the areas described by the joint operating concepts, integrating concepts,” Richardson said.
From there derive the concrete actions involving funding and programs, and an examination of existing capabilities.
“Then the services come in and say these are the capabilities that we must develop to meet that demand signal that describes how we’re going to operate with this force we’re putting together,” Richardson said.
JOE 2008 is divided into six parts, beginning with the constants, such as the nature of war, change, and the challenge of disruption. Then it looks at trends influencing world security such as demographics, globalization, climate change, and pandemics. A geopolitical examination looks at everything from nation states to unstable, weak and failing states.
The world of the future around 2030, in one sense, is already upon the military. As JOE states, “the future Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for the 2030s and the Service Chiefs of Staff are already on active duty in the rank of Captain of Lieutenant. So are the future flag and general officers, combatant commanders, Command Sergeants Major and Command Master Chiefs.