The launch market is entering an unprecedented era of diversity as smaller satellites become more popular, according to executives from major launch providers.
The diversifying launch market was a key focus of the highly anticipated launchers panel March 8 at the Satellite 2017 conference in Washington. Executives from major launch companies seemed to agree that smaller satellites will become more popular as demand for connectivity ramps up.
Gwynne Shotwell, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) chief operating officer (COO), noted an explosion in the smallsat market and warned that newer, smaller launch service providers could become fierce competitors, much like SpaceX did a decade ago. On the other hand, Stephane Israel, CEO of Arianespace, was not so certain.
“I do not believe they will all materialize and survive,” Israel said, pointing out that Arianespace’s Vega C rocket will have space to accommodate smaller and lighter satellites, likely as secondary payloads.
Lockheed Martin [LMT] Commercial Launch Services President Steven Skladanek expressed disinterest on the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) side.
“What we see is the traditional large GEO birds are not a real growth market right now,” Skladanek said. “That particular customer set is struggling with their economic model.”
Skladanek said the low earth orbit (LEO) market, however, is growing tremendously. Skladanek said that he’s very encouraged by the amount of money being invested in LEO constellations and expects smaller satellites to become more dominant as time progresses.
Kirk Pysher, president of International Launch Services (ILS), still believes GEO satellites will play a role.
“[By] 2022, we believe that the launch market customer needs are going to be extremely diverse, from LEO constellations to medium earth orbit (MEO) and of course GEO,” Pysher said.
Pysher said ILS spent the last year and a half working with customers and understanding their needs. As a result, ILS introduced the Proton variants in the fall, which will be ready first quarter 2018.
Pysher believes ILS will be very well suited to address the spread of new, more experimental satellites coming to the market, particularly the heavier High-Throughput Satellites (HTS). Still, he is looking to address the smallsat market with Angara 1, which he said can deliver up to 3.5 tons to LEO.
The panelists highlighted there is downward pressure on launch prices due to companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, which are pushing for what Blue Origin President Rob Meyerson calls “operational reusability.” Skladanek also said that United Launch Alliance (ULA), the Lockheed Martin-Boeing [BA] joint venture, is looking at ways to recover the first stage engine for the Vulcan as well as making improvements along the production line.
“It makes sense to reutilize the most expensive parts of the rocket … The rest of it is a big dump tank,” Skladanek said. “We’re working on newer manufacturing technologies like 3D printing. We’re shortening the span it requires to assemble, test and prepare the rocket, which allows for more launch opportunities.”
Arianespace does not plan on being left behind in pricing, as Israel has the ambitious goal of reducing the cost for Ariane 6 compared to Ariane 5 by “40 percent.”
As for the long-term future, the panelists agreed that reliability will remain paramount. Ko Ogasawara, vice president and director of integrated defense and space systems at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), hopes to reach 50 consecutive launch successes by 2022, while Israel is determined to finish his company’s new rockets, Ariane 6 and Vega C, on schedule.
Shotwell is all too familiar with the financial consequences of delays due to technical difficulties, but expressed confidence that SpaceX will catch up on its launch manifest before the end of 2017.
“We are investing hundreds of millions (of dollars) in production capacity,” she said. Shotwell expects the company to ultimately reach a biweekly launch rate once its second launch pad is in working order.
Skladanek’s biggest concern for the far future seems to be ensuring interest and innovation in space continues on into younger engineers and entrepreneurs.
“A lot of the heritage workforce who have been part of the rocket industry for years [are] now ready for retirement, myself included,” Skladanek said. “The thing that worries me is we’re not doing enough to ensure we’re transferring talent to this new generation.”
Both Shotwell and Meyerson seemed less interested in satellites, specifically, instead outlining their plans to focus on developing the capabilities of human activity in space.
“We believe it’s time for humanity go back to the Moon and this time to stay,” Meyerson said.
Meyerson noted that any human settlement on the moon is going to need a cargo delivery service. He hopes to address that with Blue Origin’s recently announced Blue Moon program.
Shotwell also has her eyes on our closest celestial neighbor, referencing SpaceX’s literal “moon shot” mission to take two passengers around the far side of the Moon and back. Furthermore, Shotwell reiterated the company’s goal of reaching Mars and said it is currently developing a vehicle large enough to carry 100 people to the Red Planet as a part of its Interplantery Transport System (ITS).
This story was originally published at Via Satellite, a Defense Daily sister publication covering the global satellite communications industry.