By Calvin Biesecker
Terrorists are still intent on acquiring nuclear weapons but the intelligence community is “uncertain” regarding the capabilities of terrorists to either acquire or develop such devices, the top intelligence official with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) told a Senate panel this week.
The most difficult challenge facing terrorists is acquiring enough nuclear material that could be used to make a nuclear weapon, Charles Allen, under secretary for intelligence and analysis at DHS, said in his prepared remarks before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Wednesday.
“This is the biggest obstacle,” Allen said. “Without sufficient amounts of weapons-usable nuclear material, a terrorist cannot develop a nuclear weapon.”
Other hurdles remain, including the design and fabrication of a nuclear device and then delivering to a target without detection, Allen said. Based on terrorist documents available on the Internet, he said that information does “not demonstrate a sophisticated or detailed understanding of nuclear principles and technologies.” Still, he said, if terrorists had a “viable” nuclear capability, it “may not be advertised.”
However, Allen warned, “If a terrorist group obtains sufficient quantity and quality of nuclear material, the challenges of developing a nuclear device would be extraordinarily complex but not be insurmountable.”
Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I/D-Conn.), the committee’s chairman, said the fact that Al Qaeda intends to acquire and develop nuclear devices and is trying to recruit nuclear experts “is daunting and jarring information.” The hearing was the first of several the committee plans on assessing the threat of nuclear attack against the homeland. Following an open hearing, the panel heard witness testimony in a classified session. Another hearing is planned on April 16.
But where might terrorists acquire weapons grade nuclear materials and how would they deliver a nuclear weapon?
Allen cited information from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the arm of the United Nations that is concerned with safeguarding the world’s nuclear stores, that there have been 15 actual incidents of theft and smuggling of weapons grade nuclear material. These cases involved traffickers of the material but no identified buyers, he said.
“This suggests, however, that an organized trafficker with access to both materials and qualified buyers might escape detection,” Allen said.
In the past several years there have been over 800 attempts at nuclear smuggling, Vayl Oxford, director of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office within DHS, told a House panel on Wednesday. While many of these attempts proved to be nothing more than scams, Oxford said terrorists are becoming more sophisticated in going about attempting to acquire nuclear materials.
For example, terrorists are buying handheld radiation detectors to ensure that if they are trying to buy radiological or nuclear material it is authentic, Oxford told the House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee. Oxford, whose agency is in charge of the research, development and acquisition of radiological and nuclear detection systems for DHS, said that while terrorists continue to intend to want nuclear devices, they are unlikely to attempt to deliver them in conventional “pathways” where security has already been made tighter. They are “risk averse,” he said.
Jayson Ahern, deputy commissioner for Customs and Border Protection, also questioned whether terrorists might try to run through the “gauntlet” of existing processes and technologies that have been layered to prevent the introduction of a nuclear device from outside the United States, which despite their flaws, combine to decrease the risk of such an occurrence. Instead, terrorists might choose a different pathway into the United States, such as using a small maritime vessel, or general aviation aircraft, or through the land border between the ports of entry.
Allen said that one of the best ways to protect the United States is to protect “weapons-usable material worldwide,” as another layer in the defense against nuclear smuggling.
Allen also said that it is also unknown what any nuclear device might look like and what its nuclear yield would be.