The modernization of U.S. nuclear forces will require an increase in defense spending that surpasses Budget Control Act limits but will drop to current levels after the execution of certain modernization programs, according to a report preview released this week by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).

The CSBA estimates that “annual costs should grow by 56 percent (adjusting for inflation) and peak around [Fiscal Year] 2027 before declining to near current levels in the late 2030s,” based on a study it will release next month examining near-, mid- and long-term modernization costs.  The defense budget must increase “by less than two percent above the BCA budget caps over the next decade” to fund nuclear modernization programs, the report finds.

Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Louisiana (SSBN 743). Photo: U.S. Navy
Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Louisiana (SSBN 743). Photo: U.S. Navy

Modernization will be among the costliest components of the defense budget, particularly due to warhead modernization and Ohio-class submarine replacement programs, the report says. The study challenges nuclear force reductions, concluding that the resulting savings would be “considerably less than the costs due to these forces.” As a result, it argues that “the search for savings in nuclear forces continues to be a ‘hunt for small potatoes.’”

The study says that, ultimately, “U.S. nuclear forces are affordable because their projected costs account for a small percentage of the overall defense budget,” and therefore nuclear modernization funding “is a matter of prioritization.” Leaving the answer to architects of national security strategy, the report asks, “Should nuclear forces, and by extension their modernization programs, be given higher priority in the budget than other forces?”