The Navy said in its annual shipbuilding plan submitted to Congress on Friday that the goal of reaching a fleet size of 306 ships by 2037 will be in jeopardy if the service cannot accommodate a large increase in the average annual funding that will be required over 10 years starting in 2024.
The Navy projects it will need to spend an average of $19.8 billion annually in that timeframe to build the next generation of ballistic missile submarines intended to replace the current fleet of Ohio-class boomers, a task the service identified as it biggest financial challenge in the mid-term of the 30-year shipbuilding plan.
“If the (Department of the Navy) is unable to sustain average annual shipbuilding budgets of $19.8 billion over the course of the mid-term planning period, either with internal funding or with funding from outside the Navy, plans to recapitalize the nation’s nuclear deterrent and the Navy’s conventional battle force will have to be dramatically changed and the battle force will be unable to implement” the new defense strategy outlined last year.
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| The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Louisiana (SSBN-743) Photo: U.S. Navy |
The revised defense strategy outlined in January 2012 called for greater focus in the Asia-Pacific region. The Navy subsequently determined the approach would require 306 warships, down by seven ships from a 2010 estimate. The Navy currently has 283 combat vessels.
Over the next 10 years, the Navy expects to maintain an annual average shipbuilding budget of $15.4 billion before it starts to climb toward the end of the decade. The Navy anticipates that number will return to $15 billion levels in fiscal 2034, when the construction of the Ohio-class replacement subs (SSBN(X)) nears completion.
The Navy estimates the Ohio-class replacement will cost of average of $6 billion for 12 ships, with the first submarine expected to cost $12 billion, a figure that includes $7.4 billion in construction costs and $4.6 billion for engineering and development. Construction on the first sub is scheduled to begin in 2021.
During a hearing with the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, Navy acquisition chief Sean Stackley emphasized the strain the Navy’s ship building budget will encounter during the SSBN(X) program, but also said the service is continuously working to drive down cost.
“All aspects of the Ohio Replacement Program will continue to be thoroughly reviewed and aggressively challenged to responsibly drive down engineering, construction, and operations and support costs,” he said. “However, the Navy will need the means to resource, in particular, construction of the next generation nuclear ballistic missile submarine.”
On the combat fleet size, the report said the Navy will reach 300 ships by 2019, a point repeatedly made by senior Navy officials when facing criticism for the decline in the size of the battle force. The following year, however, the number will drop to 295 before eventually getting to 302 in fiscal 2024.
When asked about the drop after 2019, a Navy official said: “This plan delivers a fleet of 300 ships by 2019. As we grow to 300 ships, we recognize that there will be an ebb and flow in ship numbers as we bring new ships online and decommission legacy platforms. Our future fleet will have increased capability and flexibility compared to the fleet of today, allowing us to be in the right place at the right time.”