The U.S. Navy, which aims to field a 308-ship fleet in the post-2020 period, will begin to fall well short of that goal in the early 2030s, according to the latest version of the service’s annual long-range shipbuilding plan.
While the Navy will meet the 308-ship target from fiscal year 2021 to FY 2028, the number of vessels is projected to drop below 300 in FY 2031 and stay there through FY 2046, the last year covered in the report. As a result of the shortfall, some of the service’s missions will become more challenging, the document says.
“At these reduced battle force levels, the Navy will still be able to meet the highest priority [Defense Strategic Guidance] DSG missions and warfighting operational plans with minimal risk,” the Navy wrote. “Higher risk will be apparent in our ability to provide forces for lower priority tasks outside of the area of conflict and in the number of forward presence missions we are able to service in peacetime.”
The report, which the Pentagon sent to leaders of the congressional defense panels earlier this month, attributes the ship shortfall to insufficient funding to build new vessels and to the planned retirement of ships nearing the end of their service lives. The Navy plans to retire 28 ships in the future-years defense program alone, which covers FY 2017 to FY 2021.
The Navy acknowledged that the picture it paints in the report could soon change. While the 308-ship requirement is set forth in an FY 2014 update to the Navy’s force structure assessment, the service is reviewing that assessment and plans to release another update in conjunction with its fiscal year 2018 budget request, due out in early calendar 2017.