NATO is “poorly prepared” for either a conventional or asymmetric attack on a member state in the Baltics, a new United Kingdom report says, while calling on the NATO September summit in Wales to address this.
“Our conclusion is that NATO is currently not well-prepared for a Russian threat against a NATO Member State,” said the U.K. Parliamentary Select Committee on Defence in its Next Defence and Security Review: Part Two-NATO.
Photo: U.K. Parliament
A conventional or asymmetrical attack by Russia on a NATO Baltic state member could potentially require an Article 5 response. Article 5 considers an attack on one alliance member to be considered to be an attack on all.
The report finds that events such as Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the cyber-attack on Estonia and the invasion of Georgia should be a wake-up call for NATO. Those events have “revealed alarming deficiencies in the state of NATO preparedness, which will be tough to fix,” the report said.
NATO hasn’t considered Russia as an adversary or potential territorial threat for 20 years, with terrorism and failed states seen as the central security threat for a decade, the report finds. The focus on NATO Article 4 and 5 obligations, Ukraine and the Baltic states is because it is the concern of Eastern European NATO members and because of the possibility “however currently unlikely” of an attack.
The committee recommends the U.K. government take the lead in making sure the September summit in Wales addresses such threats.
Specifically, the committee sets out recommendations for summit leaders to include: setting plans for “dramatic” improvements to the existing NATO rapid reaction force; pre-positioning equipment in the Baltic states, and instituting a continuous presence of NATO troops training and exercising in the Baltic nations.
Summit leaders should also re-examine “the criteria, doctrine and responses to calls under Article 4 for ‘collective security’ support against asymmetric attacks, especially, but not limited to, cyber-attacks where attribution is difficult,” the report said.
Additionally, the report recommends the summit address alliance vulnerability to asymmetric danger or attack.
Leaders should consider how to create intelligence processes and an indication and warning mechanism to alert allies to potential dangers and also how they should respond to an attack.
Accompanying these issues is how NATO, “as a matter of urgency,” can create alliance doctrine for “ambiguous warfare” and invest in such a capability, members wrote.
Among specific recommendations for the U.K. Ministry of Defense, the committee suggests the prime minister and secretary of state commit to maintaining defense spending at or above 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Making such a commitment and making efficient spending choices must also be summit priority “as a demonstration of NATO’s political will and its commitment to collective defense.”