The market for light military rotorcraft could be worth $22 billion over the next 15 years, according to industry analysis firm Forecast International.
The market research and consulting firm projects that a total of 1,610 light military rotorcraft will be produced during the 15-year period from 2017 through 2031, with an estimated value of $22.2 billion in constant 2017 U.S. dollars. A light helicopter is defined as having a maximum gross weight of less than 15,000 pounds.
Production of light military rotorcraft has been on the upswing since 2014, rising from 160 units produced that year to 208 in 2016, according to the report. The upward trend continued this year, with an expected 217 light military rotorcraft to be built by the end of 2017.
That trend could come to an end in 2017, when a decline in annual build rates is expected. Annual helicopter production is projected to continue downward through 2023, when production of 73 rotorcraft is forecast. Afterward, though, some minor growth and longer-term stability is expected, with production rising to 87 units in 2024 and then remaining within a range of 75 to 87 units per year through at least 2030.
After a period of decline, defense spending is starting to trend upward in the U.S. and various other countries, sparked by concerns over global and regional instability, according to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski.
“At least in the short term, the effects of this rising defense spending on the light military rotorcraft market will be mixed,” he said in a statement. “In the U.S., much of the near-term increase in defense spending will go mainly to readiness and RDT&E accounts, rather than to procurement.”
Much of the expected future demand for light military aircraft will originate from Asia, which will become an increasingly important market over the next decade and a half, Jaworowski said.
Forecast International projects Airbus Group‘s Airbus Helicopters division to lead the light military rotorcraft market in unit production, producing 420 units for a 26.1 percent market share from 2017 to 2031. China’s Avicopter is expected to take second place with production of 301 units for an 18.7 percent share. India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is third with production of 257 units, representing a 16 percent share. Textron‘s [TXT] Bell Helicopter division is projected fourth, with production of 225 units for a 14 percent share.
“The effects of increased defense spending on rotorcraft acquisition will be more apparent outside the U.S., where some countries could accelerate certain fleet modernization plans,” Jaworowski said. “While North America and Europe are currently the two largest regional markets for light military rotorcraft, Asia will grow in importance as a regional market over the next 15 years. Manufacturers will also be able to find sales opportunities in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.”
Military customers tend to favor medium/heavy rotorcraft, but “the incorporation of advanced systems and technologies has boosted the capabilities of many of the newer light rotorcraft models on the market, narrowing somewhat the capabilities gap between these machines and their medium/heavy counterparts,” he said.”Mission flexibility and multirole capability are key selling points for military customers. Manufacturers promote the versatility of each of the products in their portfolios – from attack models to transport/utility types.”