The Air Force is facing a potential “mass” exodus of commercial airline pilots to retirement that could cause a run of Air Force aviators to the commercial sector beginning as early as this year and early 2014, according to the service’s top officer.
“It’s really up to the airlines, but that’s what some of their projections show,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh said yesterday following an Air Force Association breakfast in Arlington, Va. “They’re looking at hiring a number of people, several thousands.”
 |
| Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh. Photo: Air Force. |
Welsh testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in early May that he was aware of a potential run on Air Force pilots to the commercial sector.
“I am told that there will be a mass — a very large exodus of airline pilots who have joined in kind of a block period and that will create a demand for pilots in the airlines that we have not seen in a long time,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said to Welsh during a SASC hearing on the Air Force’s fiscal year 2014 budget request.
McCain asked if Welsh was aware, to which he responded “Yes, sir. I am.”
Federal law prohibits commercial airline pilots to fly past the age of 65.
Welsh’s remark came as the two were discussing Air Force pilot morale as a result of reduced flying hours and training components due to sequestration-related budget reductions. Welsh said if these reduced flying hours continue into the future, he’d be “absolutely concerned” about pilot morale.
“They didn’t join to sit,” Welsh said. “They will get frustrated and they have other options.”
Welsh said yesterday he didn’t know if the growth of Defense Department health insurance premiums or costs would make for a larger exodus, but he did say the growth of personnel costs would affect the military as a whole.
“The reality is if we don’t control the personnel costs over time, we’re not going to have a very competent military,” Welsh said.
Air Force spokesman Lt. Col. John Sheets said in late May that, in general terms, there is a “huge wave” of airline pilot retirements coming up and while Air Force pilots can’t just drop their papers and walk away due to service commitments and retention bonuses, those who have completed commitments could leave. Sheets said those departing pilots would also take their experience and capabilities with them, which would cost the service time and money to replace.
But the Air Force’s remarks don’t square with the commercial airlines. Victoria Day, spokeswoman for the Airlines for America commercial airline trade association, said in a late May email the organization expects the major commercial airlines will be “appropriately staffed,” and the organization is not expecting any shortage within the next “few years.”
“Long-term projections about pilot hiring are inherently subjective as they are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty,” Day said.
Two commercial airliners, Southwest Airlines [LUV] and Alaska Airlines [ALK], said they don’t forecast a large batch of upcoming hires. Southwest spokeswoman Whitney Eichinger said yesterday with the company’s fleet flat and Southwest converting over AirTran Airways pilots, Southwest doesn’t see a large uptick in external hiring in the near future. Southwest acquired AirTran in 2011.
Alaska Airlines spokeswoman Marianne Lindsey said yesterday the company isn’t aware of a glut of future retirements and it will hire as needed to support growth and fill retirements as they occur. Frontier Airlines spokeswoman Kate O’Malley said yesterday the company does expect to increase future hiring based on growth, but since its pilots group is relatively young compared to other legacy carriers, Frontier doesn’t expect as much of an impact from “age 65 retirements” as other airlines. Frontier Airlines is a subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings [RJET].
McCain’s office didn’t respond to requests for comment.